The 2026 NFL Draft is just days away, and sportsbooks are offering countless ways to get in on the action.
I took a look at the board in an attempt to turn the NFL’s offseason spectacle in Pittsburgh into a profitable prime-time viewing experience.
With that said, let's take a look at my 2026 NFL Draft predictions and NFL best bets for the first round on Thursday, April 23.
New York Jets to Draft Ty Simpson
Kalshi Price: 13 ¢ · +669 Return
There are four reasons to play this exact marriage between player and franchise. The first is price.
The “Simpson to the Jets” market has been hovering in the +135 to +200 neighborhood at sportsbooks for the past two months. Kalshi, however, is offering a handsome payday should the Jets select Simpson this week.
The second element is the Jets’ glaring positional need. As it stands, New York has a 35-year-old journeyman penciled in as their opening day starter. Geno Smith is nothing more than a bridge starter.
Third, the Jets have been linked to Simpson throughout the pre-draft process. They interviewed him at the NFL Combine, flew down to Tuscaloosa for a private workout in March and general manager Darren Mougey has the kind of draft capital flexibility to select Simpson anywhere between 16th and 44th overall.
That fourth pillar, draft capital, is the reason I love this play at its current price.
The Jets could stand pat and select him 16th overall, trade back in the first round and select him in the 20s or use a combination of picks to acquire a third first-round pick, using that late first-rounder to select the Alabama product.
No other quarterback-needy team (AZ, LAR, PIT, TB) has anywhere near that level of war room flexibility.
Rueben Bain Jr. Drafted Before Mansoor Delane
Odds at bet365: -130
Two weeks ago, Bain was considered a top-10 lock. But then Ollie Connolly of The Read Optional reported that Bain had been involved in a fatal vehicular collision last March.
Bain began sliding down mock draft boards, and sportsbooks' odds related to his draft position followed suit.
But Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated noted that teams have been aware of Bain’s role in the accident for a “long, long time.” And the subsequent civil lawsuit that arose from the crash has been settled. So it appears, while tragic on all accounts, that this incident will not have a sizable impact on his draft slot.
Additionally, there are six teams in the top 10 that need to add an edge rusher. David Bailey is graded as this draft’s top edge rusher, but after that, Bain has entrenched himself as the clear No. 2 option in this class.
That means five teams (CLE, KC, NO, TEN, WAS) will all consider Bain with their top-10 picks.
Delane is the top cornerback prospect in this class, but it’s unlikely he comes off the board in the top eight, barring a trade.
For perspective, Bain’s over/under is sitting at 8.5 (juice to -350 for over), while Delane has only been linked to the Chiefs in the top 10 with the ninth overall selection.
This marriage makes sense for KC after it traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Los Angeles Rams last month.
Caleb Downs Draft Position Under 9.5
Odds at bet365: -135
Downs has been destined to be a top selection since his high school days. He was a five-star recruit out of high school and a two-time unanimous All-American at the college level.
His college production demonstrated his versatility both as a box defender (257 career tackles, 16 TFLs) and playmaker in the secondary (six INTs, 12 passes defensed).
The only element that holds him back is his position. The first safety to come off the board in the past five NFL Drafts has averaged a slot of 34th overall.
One thing working in Downs’ favor is the Baltimore Ravens' Kyle Hamilton. He was selected 14th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft and has quickly reached All-Pro status by playing all over the field.
Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia used Downs in the slot, as a big nickel, at linebacker in dime formations and at the two traditional safety positions.
Using him as a queen on the chessboard enhances his value significantly. That should allow a team to make him the highest-drafted safety since Minkah Fitzpatrick was taken 11th overall in 2018.
