49ers vs Falcons Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6
Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo.
- The Falcons are the NFL's last remaining team that's undefeated against the spread.
- Atlanta faces a difficult test today against the stout 49ers defense.
- Blake Krass breaks down the game and makes a betting pick below.
49ers vs. Falcons Odds
|Moneyline||-220 / +188|
|Odds via FanDuel.|
This is a matchup that could be defined by injuries.
The 49ers have been decimated, particularly on defense. However, despite those injuries, San Francisco has covered its last two games by an average margin of around two touchdowns.
The Falcons are the final undefeated team against the spread in the NFL. They're coming off a road loss to Tom Brady and the Bucs, but it was another excellent second-half performance to secure the cover.
This game will really come down to whether or not Marcus Mariota and his weapons can take advantage of the 49ers' banged-up defense. Then on the other side, which version of Jimmy Garoppolo will we get? The one who couldn't do anything against the Broncos and lost outright? Or the one that made all the throws to beat the defending Super Bowl champs comfortably?
49ers vs. Falcons Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Falcons match up statistically:
49ers vs. Falcons DVOA Breakdown
On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers are in a rough spot. It looks like Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw will all miss another game, which is great news for Marcus Mariota. San Francisco will be without its three strongest pass rushers, so Mariota should have time to make smart throws and scramble around to make plays. Offensively, the 49ers are still without all-world LT Trent Williams, as well.
Additionally, the Niners suffered a huge loss with slot CB Emmanuel Moseley tearing his ACL last week. With safety Jimmie Ward already out, this makes the 49ers' secondary very thin. The first choice replacement for Moseley would be Jason Verrett, but he hasn't played in 13 months due to an ACL injury of his own. It sounds like the 49ers might be cautious about bringing him back, especially with the artificial turf in Atlanta.
That means the 49ers will be dropping low on the depth chart to fill in someone at the slot that is not accustomed to playing there. That creates an opportunity for someone like Olamide Zaccheaus or even Kyle Pitts to have a big day in the slot for Atlanta.
Kyle Shanahan is just 19-26-1 ATS (42.2%) as a favorite since taking over in San Francisco. They did do the smart thing of staying on the East Coast after playing in Carolina last week, but it's a tough spot for Shanahan to have his guys all the way ready for this game, especially with their injury situation.
As always, we can't forget special teams. The 49ers were forced to sign placekicker Sam Sloman to their practice squad with Robbie Gould questionable to kick in this game. Gould has struggled this year and no matter who the 49ers go with, the Falcons will have the kicking edge with Younghoe Koo. Overall, the Falcons rank seventh in special teams DVOA while the 49ers come in at 29th.
49ers -4.5 | Falcons +4.5
The Falcons trailed the Rams 21-3 at halftime and trailed the Bucs 13-0 and came back to cover both of those games. They have been great in the second half, they rank fifth in second-half points per game with 14.4. The 49ers rank 22nd in the same category with just 8.6 second-half points per game.
Even if San Francisco jumps out early, I think the Falcons would be able to wear down the short-handed 49ers and snare another backdoor cover.
Win or loss, the average margin of victory in Falcons games this year has been 3.6. Whether they are favored or big dogs, their style of play just keeps games close. The 49ers' offense is also not designed to utilize the explosive play which will allow the Falcons to keep up against their banged-up opponents.
I think this will be another one-score game for the Falcons, who will have a chance to win the game outright in the fourth quarter. I like this line down to +4, having already moved down to +4.5 on Saturday.
Quickslip: Falcons +4.5 | Bet to +4