Rams vs 49ers Odds & Picks | NFL Week 8
John McCoy/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Stafford.
- It's a pick'em for 49ers vs Rams today in Los Angeles.
- Both teams are 3-3 and tied atop the NFC West standings.
- John LanFranca previews the game and makes his betting pick below.
Rams vs 49ers Odds
Typically, when there is a lopsided trend in a divisional rivalry, the team on the losing end hasn’t been a perennial Super Bowl contender.
The Rams have dropped seven straight regular season games to the 49ers, though they did defeat them in the NFC Championship Game just nine months ago. This isn’t a win-or-go-home matchup, but it might as well be. According to Football Outsiders' playoff odds, both teams' chances of making the postseason ride heavily on this Sunday afternoon contest.
If the 49ers win, their chances to make the playoffs rise to 66% and with a loss, their playoff odds drop to 33%. As for the Rams, with a victory, they’ll boast a solid 57% likelihood of getting to the playoffs. With a loss, the odds the defending Super Bowl champs return to the playoffs tank to a measly 26%.
Make no mistake, this is about as crucial as a Week 8 regular season game gets.
49ers vs. Rams Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Rams match up statistically:
49ers vs. Rams DVOA Breakdown
Getting off to a fast start will be important for the Rams. Sean McVay has had ample time to script plays versus a familiar opponent. The Rams rank 31st in points per drive in the first half of games this season, per Sharp Football Analysis.
A fast start won't be an easy task as the Los Angeles offense is dead last in yards per play on early downs (4.7 yards per play on first and second) and the 49ers possess the best defense, according to the same metric (4.3 yards per play allowed on first and second).
The addition of wide receiver Van Jefferson should pay dividends for the Rams offense. He won't be the savior, but his 16.0 yards per reception numbers from 2021 will undoubtedly help open things up. No offense in the league has produced fewer explosive plays of 20+ yards than the Rams (15).
The offensive line’s pass block win rate has decreased significantly from a year ago, when Los Angeles was the top team in the league at protecting Matthew Stafford on a play-to-play basis. Thus far in 2022, the Rams rank 23rd in pass block win rate and 25th in adjusted sack rate (8.7%). Running the ball successfully to keep the 49ers' pass rushers on their heels isn’t really an option, either. The Rams are last in the NFL in adjusted line yards at 3.73 yards per attempt.
For all of the talk about the Rams' dink-and-dunk offense, Jimmy Garappolo has gotten a bit of a pass this season after looking deeper into the metrics. Sure, Garappolo has turned in three consecutive usable fantasy football performances, but there are red flags that this offense still has plenty of issues.
49ers +1 | Rams -1
Kyle Shanahan runs a quarterback-friendly system that requires accuracy and leads to an increased number of completions. However, when it comes to actual completion percentage versus expected completion percentage, Garappolo is among the worst in the NFL out of passers with 160 attempts. If you take into account all passers, he is squarely in the same tier as Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson.
Don’t let the fantasy performances fool you, Garappolo is still the same limited player, a player whose passer rating decreases from 106.2 to 60.2 when pressured.
The 49ers' rushing attack also leaves a lot to be desired in contrast with previous versions. San Francisco is 21st in adjusted line yards, with 20% of its runs resulting in no gain or a loss. Trent Williams hasn't been healthy for several weeks, so while I take that into consideration, this matchup is a difficult one for an underperforming line.
The Rams are the second best rush defense (according to DVOA) and have only allowed 32 rushing first downs all season (2nd best). Add in the fact that Deebo Samuel is out for this game and I can't foresee a scenario in which the 49ers top the 24 points they scored against the Rams in Week 4, a game in which Samuel accounted for 117 total yards.
Both offenses have very little chance of rushing success, which will force both quarterbacks into long down-and-distance situations. As a result, both quarterbacks may find themselves under heavy pressure.
I'm not willing to fade McVay coming off a bye with plenty of time to make adjustments, and I’m somewhat suspicious of a low total featuring two quarterbacks with high turnover-worthy throw percentages.
I don’t recommend teasers ever making up more than 5%-10% of your wagers. However, this is a perfect spot because it gets us through several key numbers on both the side and total. Play whichever teaser (6-point, 6.5 or 7) can get you through the Rams +7.