The Smart Bet to Make for Seahawks vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football

The Monday Night Football total is on the move. Oddsmakers opened the over/under for Seahawks vs. 49ers (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) at 44. Lopsided action — 80% of tickets — is on the over in this NFC West showdown, forcing bookmakers to increase the total to 47.5.

Casual bettors are expecting a shootout, but history says they could be disappointed.

Since 2003, the under is 820-726-29 (53.0%) in division games, returning a profit of $4,816 for a $100 bettor according to Bet Labs. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

Odds as of Monday 9 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

But we can make this NFL betting system even better.

Seahawks vs. 49ers Betting System Pick

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it has been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It is just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

In this scenario, division unders have gone 375-300-10 (55.6%) since 2003. A $100 bettor following this simple strategy has returned a profit of $5,469.

Of course, it is not just history that points to value on the under in this matchup. In terms of pace, Seattle ranks 21st and San Francisco 27th. The 49ers are favored in this game, and when holding a lead they become the slowest-paced team in the league.

A slow pace means fewer plays for each team. Points scored and the number of plays run in a game are correlated.

Sean Koerner’s power ratings project the total to be 45, indicating value in the current number as well.

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