Aaron Rodgers Traded to Jets: How Odds Changed
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After an approximate two-month saga, Aaron Rodgers has officially been traded to the New York Jets.
The compensatory package includes a first-round pick swap, the 42nd and 207th picks in the 2023 draft and a conditional 2024 pick. The Packers will now have the Jets' 13th overall selection while the Jets will be picking 15th on Thursday. The 170th pick — a fifth rounder — will head back to New York.
The conditional pick will be a first-rounder if Rodgers plays 65% of the Jets' snaps next season. Otherwise, it will convey as a second rounder.
How Did Jets, Packers Odds Change?
Not very much at all. The market had baked-in this reality over a month ago, when all signs pointed toward Rodgers in the Meadowlands come fall.
Since March 15, when Rodgers said he expected to be a Jet, odds have changed very mildly.
In fact, in some markets, the Jets have received longer odds.
At FanDuel, the team had been +220 to win the AFC East behind the Bills (+120). Now, the Jets are +250 underdogs despite the Bills moving to +130.
As recently as February — before momentum of a Rodgers move — the Jets had been as long as 28-1 to win the Super Bowl.
In the Super Bowl market, the team has moved up slightly from 15-1 to 14-1 at FanDuel.
At DraftKings, odds have largely stayed the same for the last month. The Jets have remained as 14-1 Super Bowl underdogs for this entire month. New York is +225 to win the AFC East there.
The time to beat the market was in late February, when inklings were permeated that a divorce was imminent. By the time Packers president Mark Murphy indicated to a local journalist that Rodgers' time was up in Green Bay, the market had singled out New York as his most likely destination.
By that same ilk, Packers odds have barely changed, too. They're +4000 to win it all, tied for the 16th-best favorites.
Green Bay has the worst odds to win the NFC North across the market — the first time that's occurred preseason since realignment in 2002.
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