Cardinals vs Bears Prediction & Odds | NFL Week 16 Preview

The latest Cardinals vs Bears odds have the Bears listed as 4.5-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 42 total points for NFL Week 16. My NFL pick is on a player prop for a rising star on the Cardinals' side.

The Bears host the Cardinals in a showdown of teams playing out the string. While neither team inspires much confidence to turn a profit, one player has been an absolute cash cow of late when it comes to hitting his props.

That player is Arizona tight end Trey McBride, and the only question remaining is which of his props to back for our Cardinals vs Bears prediction.

Backing McBride has been money in the bank from the moment Kyler Murray made his season debut in Week 10. Just take a look at his game-logs with Murray under center:

• Week 10 vs. Falcons: Eight catches on nine targets for 131 yards.
• Week 11 vs. Texans: Five catches on seven targets for 43 yards.
• Week 12 vs. Rams: Seven catches on nine targets for 60 yards.
• Week 13 vs. Steelers: Eight catches on nine targets for 89 yards.
• Week 15 vs. 49ers: 10 catches on 11 targets for 102 yards.

McBride has a team-high 27.2% target share in those five games, and he leads all NFL tight ends in catches and yards. He’s tied with CeeDee Lamb and Keenan Allen for the most receptions per game by any player over the last four weeks, and he ranks seventh in targets per game over the same span.

McBride’s development has arguably been the highlight of the Cardinals’ season. He's emerged as Pro Football Focus’ third-highest ranked tight end among those with at least 10 receptions, trailing only George Kittle and Travis Kelce.

Tight ends have feasted against the Bears all year. Chicago allows the fourth-most catches (5.93) and seventh-most targets (7.71) per game. They rank 20th in yards per game (50.1) and 28th in touchdowns to the position (six).

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The Bears defense has improved drastically in recent weeks, but they’re still susceptible to big games by tight ends. In fact, David Njoku went off against them last week, setting season highs in catches (10) and yards (104).

The Cardinals offense has been feisty over the last month and a half, and it’s needed to be thanks to Arizona’s atrocious defense. The Cardinals rank dead last in defensive DVOA and give up the league’s second-most points per game (26.9). The Bears aren’t exactly world beaters on offense, but they should be able to move the ball enough to force Murray to air it out for a full four quarters.

McBride figures to be the focal point of Arizona’s passing attack, and all the ingredients are there for him to author another big game. The only question left is deciding what’s the best way to back him – receptions or receiving yards?

Some books list receptions at 5.5, but that comes with significant juice between -150 and -190. Others offer it at 6.5 at plus odds, but seven is a lofty number despite him clearing it in four of five games with Murray at quarterback.

Meanwhile, McBride’s receiving yards are as low as 59.5, and he's eclipsed that in all but one game with Murray. His longest reception is also being offered at 19.5. However, only three of his 38 receptions over this five-game hot-streak have exceeded that threshold, making it the least likely bet of the bunch.

Is it time to put Murray to McBride up there with Tua to Tyreek, Dak to Lamb, Mahomes to Kelce and Hurts to Brown among the league’s elite pairings? Probably not.

However, they might very well be the hottest quarterback-pass catcher combination as we near the end of the regular season.

Again, the only question is whether you prefer receptions or receiving yards. While I’d prefer to bet McBride to go over 5.5 receptions, the juice is too prohibitive for me. As such, I’m focusing on receiving yards, and am more than happy to back over 59.5.