Koerner: Odds You’ll Win Your Fantasy Matchup with a MNF Miracle

Koerner: Odds You’ll Win Your Fantasy Matchup with a MNF Miracle article feature image
Credit:

Kareem Elgazzar/The Cincinnati Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK. Pictured: Joe Mixon

  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Bengals and Steelers players scoring enough points to win your Week 4 fantasy football matchups.

Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.

So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s Bengals-Steelers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 20 points from Joe Mixon? He has an 9% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Bengals: Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Tyler Eifert
  • Steelers: Mason Rudolph, James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals

Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals

John Ross, WR, Bengals

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals

Mason Rudolph, QB, Steelers

James Conner, RB, Steelers

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers