Koerner: Odds You’ll Win Your Fantasy Matchup with a MNF Miracle
Kareem Elgazzar/The Cincinnati Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK. Pictured: Joe Mixon
- Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Bengals and Steelers players scoring enough points to win your Week 4 fantasy football matchups.
Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.
So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?
I simulated tonight’s Bengals-Steelers matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 20 points from Joe Mixon? He has an 9% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.
Here are the players I’ll touch on:
- Bengals: Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Tyler Eifert
- Steelers: Mason Rudolph, James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)