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Bengals vs Ravens Player Prop: Expert Fade of Zay Flowers

Bengals vs Ravens Player Prop: Expert Fade of Zay Flowers article feature image

Greg Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Zay Flowers.

Bengals vs Ravens Player Prop: Zay Flowers

Thursday, Nov. 16
8:15 p.m. ET
Zay Flowers Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Pick: Zay Flowers Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
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Flowers has been one of the better rookie WRs this season He’s made a handful of explosive plays, but he’s only averaging 10.9 yards a reception and his median reception has only been 7.5 yards.

Flowers took advantage of both Rashad Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. missing some action earlier in the season. Now, both are healthy, and it’s been eating into his target share a bit, and he’s seeing fewer targets downfield as a result, too.

The Bengals have a run-funnel defense and struggled at allowing explosive runs and slowing down rushing QBs. Lamar Jackson and Keaton Mitchell potentially ripping off big runs will eat into Flowers' receiving yards.

Also, the Bengals have used man coverage at the 11th-highest rate. Flowers has been better against zone (2.10 yards route run) than man coverage (1.10).

Finally, the Bengals rank 30th in DVOA against opposing tight ends. That means we could see a big game for Mark Andrews.

I'm projecting Flowers closer to 45.5 and a 60% chance to stay under 52.5.

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