Titans vs Bengals Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 12

Titans vs Bengals Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 12 article feature image

Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry.

  • The Titans and Bengals face off in Week 12.
  • Cincinnati is a 1-point favorite on the road.
  • John LanFranca breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Titans vs Bengals Odds

Sunday, Nov. 27
1 p.m. ET
Titans Odds
-114o / -106u
Bengals Odds
-114o / -106u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

A playoff rematch from a season ago is on tap between the Bengals and Titans. The stakes of this game feel considerably higher than your typical mid-November, regular season game.

The Titans undoubtedly have revenge on their mind, looking to atone for their performance at home against the Bengals just 10 months ago. The Bengals, one game out of the division lead, hit the road, where Joe Burrow has been the most profitable against the spread over the past two years (15-7 against the spread since 2020).

Titans vs. Bengals Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Titans and Bengals match up statistically:

Titans vs. Bengals DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA89
Pass DVOA1013
Rush DVOA91
Overall DVOA1813
Pass DVOA1210
Rush DVOA1416
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The Tennessee Titans’ identity is clearly built behind the running ability of Derrick Henry. Their first down rushing rate as a team is 67%, second in the league behind only the Atlanta Falcons. Interestingly, they have a negative DVOA when running on first down, ranking 17th in the league.

Their commitment to the run has opened up the play-action passing game on first down for Ryan Tannehill, who is the highest rated passer in football when letting it rip on the first down. The Titans have the No. 1 DVOA in the NFL when deciding to throw it on first down.

They match up quite well with the Bengals in this area as Cincinnati is 19th in the NFL at defending the pass on first down, and 25th in the league at defending the run on first down. If the Titans can have a high success rate on early downs, they can still effectively use play-action on second and third down.

Despite the three turnovers that ultimately doomed the Titans in the playoffs last year, this offense still averaged 6.8 yards per play to the Bengals 5.4. The Titans went just 1-of-8 on third downs (and 0-for-1 on fourth down), while the Bengals converted seven of their 15 attempts.

The Titans' passing attack has been one of the most efficient in football with Tannehill. Tennessee boasts the 11th-best DVOA through the air when its starting quarterback in the lineup. Tannehill is averaging 8.06 yards per attempt in 2022, the second best mark of his career. Treylon Burks is coming off the best game of his career as well — setting career highs in targets, receptions and yards, which bodes extremely well for this passing attack moving forward.

Bet Cincinnati vs. Tennessee at FanDuel
Bengals -2.5 | Titans +2.5

Joe Burrow will likely be without both Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase. If Chase does play, it will presumably be in a limited capacity. Burrow answered the bell last week, showing why he is one of the league’s elite quarterbacks as he diced up the Steelers defense to the tune of 355 yards and four scores.

The way to attack this Titans defense is pretty straightforward — throw the ball early and often. The Titans have the best defense in the NFL versus the run, surrendering only 3.79 yards per carry and stuffing 24% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, second-best in the league.

Zac Taylor will keep Burrow in the shotgun on Sunday, allowing his quarterback to do what he does best. This is not the game in which we’ll be seeing the conservative side of Taylor’s play-calling philosophies. This offense thrives out of the shotgun and struggles when Burrow is kept under center. It is clear Taylor will attack the Tennessee defense in this manner.

When these two offenses enter the redzone, you can expect seven points on the board. The Bengals are the best offense in football at converting redzone opportunities into touchdowns (75%), and the Titans are the second-best in the league at 74.1%.

I am not overly concerned about what some may perceive as a lack of weapons for the Bengals. This offense still has the number one offensive success rate over the past four weeks at 53.3% (per Sharp Football). Joe Mixon has only forced 17 missed tackles this season and is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. He won’t necessarily be missed in this specific matchup vs a stout Titans front seven.

Betting Picks

I hardly ever recommend teasers with the cost of the juice it takes to play them these days. However, in this spot, a seven-point teaser would get us through several key numbers.

Teasing the Titans gets us through the key numbers of 3,4 and 7. Teasing the total down to 36.5 gets us through the key numbers of 43,41 and 37. Both passing offenses will have success on Sunday and redzone possessions will end up hitting paydirt instead of settling for field goals. Tease the Titans and the over in this pivotal AFC matchup.

Pick: Tease Titans +9.5 / Over 36.5 | Bet to 8.5 / Over 37

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