Bills Super Bowl Odds Skyrocket After Steamrolling Steelers

The Bills were among the Super Bowl favorites at the start of the season, then longshots to make the playoffs midway through the season with a 6-6 record. However, they won five-straight to win the AFC East, and are once again strong contenders to win it all after beating the Steelers, 31-17.

Buffalo had the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl prior to Super Wild Card Weekend (+650), and still have the third-best (+500) after beating Pittsburgh, according to DraftKings.  They’ll host the Chiefs next week, who have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+700) after manhandling the Dolphins Saturday night.

Josh Allen delivered a gem for backers against the Steelers, which is a rarity considering his failures in similar spots. The Bills closed as 10-point favorites, and Allen lost seven consecutive games against the spread as a double-digit favorite dating back to October of 2022. Ironically enough, that win came in a 38-3 win over these very same Steelers. Allen has cost bettors big in the playoffs in general. He entered the game 2-6 ATS, which was third-worst among quarterbacks over the past 20 years. Only Dak Prescott (1-6 ATS) has been worse.

However, Allen was terrific Monday in less-than-ideal conditions, finishing 21-for-30 for 203 yards and three touchdowns for a 121.8 passer rating. He also ran the ball eight times for 74 yards, including a back-breaking 52-yard touchdown run in the second quarter to give Buffalo an insurmountable 21-0 lead.

Next week’s showdown between the Bills and Chiefs is a highly-anticipated rematch of one of the regular season’s best games. Buffalo pulled out a 20-17 win in a game best remembered for Kadarius Toney’s late-game winning touchdown called back for lining up offsides.

The dramatic win spearheaded a five-game winning streak that saw the 6-6 Bills go from longshots to make the playoffs (20.6% according to NYTimes simulator) to AFC East champions. They were +500 to win the division at the time, but doing so gives them a tremendous shot going forward as Allen and the Bills are incredible at home. Buffalo is 19-3 straight up in their last 22 home games, and 29-6 over their last 35. Meanwhile, Allen’s 35-8 record straight up ranks second in moneyline profitability over the last five years

Kickoff for next week’s game between the second-seeded Bills and third-seeded Chiefs is set for Sunday at 6:30pm ET. Buffalo is instilled as early 2-point favorites while the total’s set at 47.

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