Bills vs Dolphins NFL Week 3 Picks, Prediction

Bills vs Dolphins NFL Week 3 Picks, Prediction article feature image

Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa (left) and Jaylen Waddle.

  • The Bills are favored in a matchup of 2-0 teams today against the Dolphins.
  • Both offenses are red hot, while Buffalo's defense is dealing with significant injuries.
  • Landon Silinsky breaks down the game and makes his pick below.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds

Sunday, Sept. 25
1 p.m. ET
Bills Odds
-109o / -112u
Dolphins Odds
-109o / -112u
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins is setting up to be one of the most exciting games on the Week 3 slate as two prolific offenses go head-to-head in South Beach.

There are a ton of injuries that need monitoring, which we will get to below.

Josh Allen and the AFC-leading Buffalo Bills are coming off an evisceration of the Titans on Monday Night Football, while Tua Tagovailoa is coming off the game of his life, throwing six touchdowns in a comeback win vs. the Ravens.

You're not going to want to miss this one.

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Bills vs. Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Dolphins match up statistically:

Bills vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA726
Pass DVOA231
Rush DVOA307
Overall DVOA21
Pass DVOA42
Rush DVOA123

The Bills defense has been a juggernaut these first two weeks of the season (No. 1 overall defense DVOA), but their depth will be put to the test this week as they'll be missing at least four starters, with a couple of others still listed questionable.

Let's start with who's missing: safety Micah Hyde (for the rest of the season), cornerback Dane Jackson and two defensive tackles in Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips. On top of that, other starting safety Jordan Poyer is battling a foot injury and is listed as questionable.

That's a ton of guys to be missing just as you face Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

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On the other side of the ball, however, Miami could possibly be without stud corner Xavien Howard, who's been battling a groin injury and is listed as questionable, as well.

Obviously, we know what the Bills offense can do, and they should be getting back stud receiver Gabriel Davis to bookend Stefon Diggs in this spot to further bolster their arsenal.

Miami also ranks 31st in the NFL in pressure rating this season, which will allow Allen time to pick this secondary apart, just like Lamar Jackson did a week ago. Both Miami and Buffalo are tied for second in the NFL in yards per play, trailing only the Ravens.

Betting Picks

With all of the defensive injuries to both teams, it's really hard to see either offense struggling in this spot with all the firepower on both sides. We know both of these coaches do not like to run the ball much, leading to more total plays run and clock stoppages stemming from incompletions.

The game being played in Miami is just a boost, as it's less likely Buffalo blows them out in their home building, which could lead to a back-and-forth affair with tons of explosive plays downfield.

The Bills are going to have serious trouble containing both Hill and Waddle, and there is obviously no stopping Allen and this freight train offense, so give me the over here.

FanDuel Quickslip: Over 52.5 | Bet to 53

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