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Bills vs Patriots Spread, Pick: Bet Thursday Night Football Over/Under

Bills vs Patriots Spread, Pick: Bet Thursday Night Football Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Joshua Bessex/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.

  • The Patriots (+3.5) are home underdogs on Thursday Night Football against the Bills.
  • New England is fighting for playoff position, while Buffalo is tied for first place in the AFC East.
  • Sean Koerner breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Bills vs Patriots Odds

Thursday, Dec. 1
8:15 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Bills Odds -3.5 (-118)
Patriots Odds +3.5 (-104)
Moneyline -198 / +166
Over/Under 43.5
Odds via FanDuel.

Week 13 starts with an AFC East rivalry, with Bills vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football in New England.

New England is in last place in the division, but it’s 6-5 and still in the thick of the playoff race. Buffalo, meanwhile, is tied for first place with Miami, although the Dolphins won the first head-to-head matchup of the season.

Let’s break down the matchup and find a betting edge.

Bills vs. Patriots Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Patriots match up statistically:

Bills vs. Patriots DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 6 2
Pass DVOA 3 3
Rush DVOA 17 7
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 25 3
Pass DVOA 22 7
Rush DVOA 24 3

When the Bills Have the Ball

Josh Allen will be without left tackle Dion Dawkins for this one, and it’ll likely be David Quessenberry who is tasked with protecting his blind side. This could be an issue against a Patriots defense that has generated the second-highest pressure rate on the season.

Here’s how Allen has ranked out of 36 eligible quarterbacks when facing pressure in some key metrics: sixth in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, 19th in QB Rating, 10th in EPA per play and sixth in Success Percentage. As you can see, he’s been a mixed bag, but overall, he performs like a top-10 QB when facing pressure.

However, since Allen’s elbow injury back in Week 9, he has struggled as a passer. Whether it’s because of his injury or the small sample size remains to be seen, but it’s worth pointing out. Over the last three games, Allen’s accuracy has been an issue. Only 66.3% of his passes have been on target (33rd of 36) and his 84.7 QB rating ranks 26th.

Despite his subpar passing performances of late, Allen has always been able to lean on his rushing ability to move the chains and generate offense. We could see him tap into his rushing ability even more against the Patriots, who have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season.

Bet Thursday Night Football at FanDuel


When the Patriots Have the Ball

Mac Jones is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 382 yards and two TDs against the Vikings. However, he faces a much tougher test this week against a Bills defense that ranks third in DVOA on the season.

The matchup was made a bit easier when Von Miller was ruled out due to his knee injury. Buffalo cornerback Tre’Davious White played last week in a minor role, and he’s going to remain limited and unlikely to make too much of an impact right away.

The Patriots are dealing with some injuries along their O-line, as left guard Isaiah Wynn has already been ruled out and center Davis Andrews is questionable after getting in two limited practices this week.

Jones’ top target, Jakobi Meyers is also questionable after getting banged up last week. He’s expected to suit up but may not be at 100% on the short week. These are two injuries we’ll need to monitor closely.

Betting Picks

All signs point to this being a lower-scoring game. Referee Shawn Hochuli has been assigned to this game, and he has been pretty favorable to the under in his career (39-29-3, 57.1%). He was one of the many reasons why I loved the Saints vs. 49ers under last week.

However, we may find more value on the under once we get to the second half. Take a look at the first- and second-half scoring average for each team:

Team 1H Scoring Average 2H Scoring Average
Patriots 10.1 11.6
Bills 16.7 11.4

The Bills play at the fastest pace in the first half, but they fall to 13th in the second. The Patriots are typically slow all game, ranking 24th in the first half and 27th in the second.

This could be a matchup where the offenses could have the edge early on the short week, but two defensive-minded head coaches will be able to make halftime adjustments to slow down the opposing offense.

I locked in the under on Thursday morning, as well as my top player prop pick.

Pick: Under 43.5 | Look to Bet Second-Half Under

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