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NFL Week 12 Picks: Expert Makes Bet on Saints vs 49ers Total

NFL Week 12 Picks: Expert Makes Bet on Saints vs 49ers Total article feature image
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Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo.

Sean Koerner is Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics. Follow him in the Action App to get all his picks instantly as he makes them.


NFL Odds & Picks

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Buccaneers vs Browns
1 p.m. ET
Saints vs 49ers
4:25 p.m. ET

Pick
Browns +3.5
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Sean Koerner: The Browns have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league this season. Case in point: They rank 29th in our Luck Rankings.

A big part of that is due to a 1-5 record in one-score games. They are a much better team than their 3-7 record indicates, especially considering they’ve faced the third toughest schedule to date, based on DVOA.

The Achilles heel for the Browns has been their defense, which ranks 31st in DVOA. It’s a bit of a head-scratcher considering they have arguably the best defensive player in the game (Myles Garrett), but that’s been offset by the rest of the unit being underwhelming.

However, they could get an assist from the weather as there could be fairly strong wind and rain for this game. If that’s the case, this could turn into more of a run-heavy trench battle, something the Browns would benefit from.

The Buccaneers have struggled to run this season (30th in DVOA) and will be without Leonard Fournette. Rookie Rachaad White is more than capable of filling in, but this is certainly a game where having both backs healthy would have been ideal.

Bucs defensive tackle Vita Vea is shaping up to be a game-time decision with a foot injury, so if he ends up being held out or limited, that’s a huge boost for Cleveland’s ground game.

I’m going to lock this bet in now at +3.5 in case it gets bet down to +3.

This will likely be Jacoby Brissett’s last start with Deshaun Watson expected to take over next week. Brissett is the quintessential teammate and I can see the Browns giving max effort to send him out on a winning note.

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Pick
Under 43
Best Book
Time
4:25 p.m. ET

Sean Koerner: The 49ers defense has been lights out lately with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner playing at a high level. They have allowed no points in the second half over their last three games.

Meanwhile, the Saints offense has struggled, ranking just 23rd in DVOA and averaging just 16.7 points over their past three contests. However, their defense could get a massive lift with the potential returns of Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport.

Each of those guys are currently listed as questionable, but getting 1-3 of them back could help slow the 49ers offense. Deebo Samuel popped up on the injury report with a hamstring injury, so there is a chance the dynamic playmaker could be playing at less than 100%.

Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in situation-neutral pace, so this will likely be one of the slower-paced games of the week. If the 49ers get out to a big lead, which is likely as 10-point favorites, that will only help lower the scoring environment of this game. And we should see their defense continue to prevent second-half points.

Referee Shawn Hochuli has been assigned to this game, and he has been pretty favorable to the under in his career (38-29-3, 54.3%).

I’m having a hard time seeing why 81% of the action and 93% of the money have come in on the over when everything seems to point to this being a low-scoring matchup. Forty-three is a pretty key number for totals, so I would consider waiting to see if this goes up to 43.5, or just buy the half point to be safe. Either way, I’m projecting this game closer to 41.5.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.


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