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The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams play the last game of NFL Week 5 tonight on Monday Night Football.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out Stuckey's Bills vs Rams preview.
For this article, I'm targeting the First Touchdown prop market in Bills vs Rams. You'll learn why I'm inclined to make a play on Bills tight end Jackson Hawes
Continue below for my Bills vs Rams first touchdown pick.
Bills vs Rams First Touchdown Props
Odds subject to change
Bills vs Rams Touchdown Scorer Picks
Jackson Hawes First Touchdown (+5500)
— Written by @VicksPicksHQ for PropBomb
I like the price on Jackson Hawes to score the first touchdown tonight at +5500.
The Bills have won the coin toss twice this season and elected to receive both times, while the Rams have won twice and deferred on both occasions.
Obviously, that’s a small sample and doesn’t guarantee anything, but I like the possibility of the Bills getting the ball first. If they do, they are more than capable of putting together a touchdown drive right out of the gate with Josh Allen leading the way.
Buffalo ranks second in the league in 13 personnel usage, putting three tight ends on the field at once. That personnel grouping tends to fit well with positive game scripts and red-zone situations, which makes it particularly interesting for a first-touchdown wager.
Hawes is one of the three tight ends who can be on the field alongside Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox — Hawes found the end zone three times in similar situations last season.
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The Bills could lean even more heavily into multi-tight-end sets tonight, with Joshua Palmer ruled out and DJ Moore questionable after missing practice all week. With Buffalo thin at receiver, that creates another reason to get creative with personnel and find ways to use all three tight ends.
I think Hawes’ anytime touchdown price around +850 is reasonable, but +5500 for the first touchdown is where the value gets interesting.
We’re betting on a very specific outcome, but there’s a logical path to it: Buffalo gets the opening possession, following the coin toss trend. The offense moves the ball into scoring position, and relies on its heavy tight-end personnel near the goal line, given it is thin at WR and use it at a high rate to begin with.
At +5500, I don’t think the price fully accounts for how well Hawes’ role aligns with the path to an opening-drive touchdown.
Given Buffalo’s heavy 13 personnel usage, lack of receiving depth, and the possibility of getting the ball first, I think there’s more upside here than the odds are implying.
Pick: Jackson Hawes First Touchdown (+5500 at DraftKings); .05U
