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The Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo tonight for Week 5 NFL Monday Night Football. Kickoff from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. MNF will broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
The Rams are 3.5-point favorites over the Bills on the spread (Rams -3.5), with an over/under of 54.5. The Rams are -176 favorites on the moneyline and the Bills are +146 underdogs.
Continue below for our Bills vs Rams picks for Monday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and two player props.
Bills vs Rams Picks, Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs Rams Odds
- Bills vs Rams Moneyline: Bills +148, Rams -176
- Bills vs Rams Total: 54.5
- Bills vs Rams Spread: Bills +3.5 (-115), Rams -3.5 (-105)
MNF odds via FanDuel (subject to change)
Bills vs Rams Spread Prediction
The Bills defense is quite clearly the weakest unit involved in this game, but their ineptitude still isn’t enough to deter me from taking the points with Josh Allen.
The Rams defense has played better since their opener against the 49ers in Australia, but that has come against three less-than-stellar offenses (Giants, Broncos, Eagles).
The 49ers gashed the Rams in Week 1 to the tune of 5.5 yards per carry and the Bills should have similar success in the running game. Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in rushing success rate — this has aided them greatly in averaging 6.2 yards per play on first or second down.
Both teams should sustain drives often, and I am certainly not predicting the Bills defense to get many stops. However, the Rams have committed multiple turnovers in four consecutive games. A single turnover in this type of game could swing the pendulum towards the underdogs in their quest to earn a road victory.
Regardless, I am comfortable taking the points with one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks in addition to their efficient running game.
If you can find Bills +3.5 at -120 or better, the juice is worth the squeeze. Otherwise, settling for +3 at near even money is perfectly reasonable in this spot.
Pick: Bills +3.5 (-115)
Bills vs Rams Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
Two of the NFL’s best offenses meet on Monday night, with former MVP quarterbacks Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford leading their teams into a game with a 54.5 total. While the passing game(s) for each team gets most of the attention, they also rank first and second in adjusted line yards, a measure of run blocking.
That latter detail explains why both of these teams rank middle of the road in terms of Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the season, when we typically think of them as pass-first offenses. That’s sometimes an issue for game environments since running the ball takes more time off the clock, but I’m not concerned here.
Once one team gets out in front the other will likely attack aggressively, and the leading team should be able to have success on the ground while trying to preserve a lead. The Rams are slight favorites and the Bills have the worse rushing defense of the two, which also helps, but I don’t see either offense having much trouble in any phase of the game.
While a somewhat slow start wouldn’t surprise me, this feels like one that could be a shootout down the stretch, making the over my favorite bet for the game – but keep an eye out for live betting opportunities following a slow start, as we may be able to get a better price if there’s some early stalled drives.
Pick: Over 54.5 (-110)
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Props
We know we’re getting tonight with the total over 54.
Buffalo will get its share of those points, and that means Josh Allentouchdowns.
An Allen Anytime TD has been a free space this season, cashing in all four games (2-2-2-1) entering Week 5.
Last year, he scored a touchdown in 8 of 16 games, which matches this implied probability, but Joe Brady is using him differently near the goal line now.
This line is usually around -130 or -135, so we are getting a discount at -105 (Hard Rock) with the Bills as underdogs. I sniffed around his 2+ TD odds (+550), but instead, I'll try another First TD sprinkle at +700.
The Bills have received the ball first twice this season when most teams opt to defer. They should get the ball first.
I thought there was going to be more value here, but the Bills scoring first is just 2-2, and they are 1-3 in the first quarter. They aren't starting fast, and books are annoyingly pricing it in.
Allen has scored the game's first touchdown once, the first Bills TD thrice, and a first-half TD in all four games.
Pick: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-105 at Hard Rock; -120 at FanDuel/DraftKings)
Escalator bet: Josh Allen First TD (+700 at FanDuel)
Kyren Williams Rushing + Receiving Yards Prop
By Brit Devine
Kyren Williams has logged at least 80 rushing yards in three straight games, and with the Rams off to a slow start this season at 2-2, they seem to be leaning into playing their best offensive players more as the defense has struggled some.
Williams' share of carries has increased each week this season, topping out at 72.7% last week against the Eagles. After seeing him run a route on 72% of the team's pass plays last week, it's clear the Rams are signaling a big change in his workload compared to last season.
His 20 targets over the last two games are the most of any RB in the NFL and good enough for the ninth-most targets overall in that span.
With a premier game at home against the Bills, I am looking for the Rams to continue to lean on Williams as a true workhorse. It has become clear that he is in a much better overall role than he was to start the season and compared to last season.
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 93.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-114)
