Bills vs. Rams Odds: 5 Picks, Predictions for NFL Week 1 Opener
Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Donald.
- The Rams begin their Super Bowl defense as 2.5-point underdogs against the Bills.
- Buffalo begins the season as the Super Bowl favorite across the board.
- Check out our five favorite bets for Bills vs. Rams on Thursday Night Football below.
Bills vs. Rams Odds
|Moneyline||-124 / +105|
|Time||Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel.|
Professional football is back — and it's back with a bang, thanks to Bills vs Rams.
The Super Bowl favorites are on the road this week against the reigning champions. It doesn't get much better than this.
Our staff of NFL betting analysts has you covered from all fronts. We have a pick on the spread, one on the total, two player props and even a pick with an eye toward Sunday in Week 1.
NFL Odds & Picks
Simon Hunter: What better way to kick off the new season than the defending champions taking on the Super Bowl favorites?
The public loves the Bills, but I have this line as a pick’em. Lucky for us, money has poured in on Buffalo, moving this line significantly.
The Rams' defensive line is built to give the Bills’ offensive line, which has a lot of question marks, a run for its money. Josh Allen doesn’t have many weaknesses, but pressure up the middle and outside blitzes have been his biggest issues. Los Angeles has plenty of ways to cause him problems.
Sean McVay is 5-0 straight-up in season openers as head coach of the Rams. I’d bet this game down to Rams +2.
The Great Foosini: Last season, the Rams’ regular-season matchup with the then-reigning-champion Buccaneers closed at 55, the highest of the season, and the game went over by three. The following week, the Rams played the Cards at home on a total of 54 – their second-highest of the year – with that game also going over by a field goal.
As the season went on, Rams totals gradually decreased to around 47-48, but there’s an overall trend with their game outcomes. The total points scored were more than 50 points when they played elite offenses like the Bucs, Packers or Cardinals. No need to clarify whether the Bills' offense is elite.
Looking at the Bills on the road last year, their games went over on every total set above 50, which happened against the Titans, Bucs and twice against the Chiefs (once in the playoffs). If we hone in on similar opponents, oddsmakers set the Bills vs. Bucs total at 53 and Bucs vs. Rams at 54. At most books, this game is 52.
We have solid data on the Bills’ road totals, the Rams against elite offenses and a very similar game design to the Bucs vs. Rams in 2021. Analyzing the market's view and outcomes of each team in those scenarios presents a valuable entry point into the game, and I will be playing the over at 51.5 on FanDuel and would play it to 52.
Charlie DiSturco: The Allen Robinson Revenge Tour officially begins Thursday night. After being stuck in purgatory — erm, Chicago — Robinson joins a high-powered offense with which I expect a big season opener from the 29-year-old.
If there's a weakness on this Bills team, it's at the cornerback position. Star Tre'Davious White remains on the PUP list to begin the year, leaving behind a thin depth chart.
Regardless of who takes the majority of snaps, Robinson has the biggest mismatch on Thursday night. All attention will be shifted toward Cooper Kupp — you can't leave the star on an island — often leaving the veteran 1-on-1 with the aforementioned rookie cornerbacks.
We saw Robert Woods thrive as the No. 2 behind Kupp last season, scoring touchdowns in four of nine games before suffering a season-ending injury. He was WR13 in fantasy at the time of the injury. Enter Odell Beckham Jr. as a replacement, and he finished with seven touchdowns in 12 games.
With Van Jefferson also out of this game, Robinson should see a heavy workload in his Rams debut. I think he booms against this young Bills secondary and would also play his touchdown prop at +160. If you want a longshot to add to your slate, consider him to lead the game in receiving yards (+600), too.
Buy your early-season Robinson stock before it's too late.
Kody Malstrom: The Bills enter the season with the top Defensive DVOA in the NFL coupled with an above-average offense. Buffalo will not be at 100% going into this game as it awaits cornerback Tre'Davious White's return from a torn ACL suffered in Week 12 last year.
Until then, the Bills have a mystery in one of the most important positions with rookie Kaiir Elam potentially filling in.
It’s the Buffalo offense that gives me pause, given it likely struggles against this Rams defense. Josh Allen is a star, but his tendency to scramble early or hold onto the ball too long sets them back. He regressed to the middle of the pack in EPA and Turnover Rate last season, a statistical image of his bad habits.
Combine that with a weaker offensive line that will be abused by the Rams' constant pressure from up front, and we may see Allen struggle once again.
The Rams have more questions marks this season than last, but they're still an elite team. Losing Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods hurts, but Allen Robinson comes in to ease the loss and forces Sean McVay to balance out the attack with a capable running back committee.
While I am never a fan of taking an underdog at +2.5, I will instead be throwing them into a Wong Teaser with Dallas to give me both teams at +8.5. If you want to play them straight-up instead, I would wait to see if money pushes it to +3.
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Sam Farley: We’re expecting a shootout between these two offensive powerhouses, and as you’d expect, the numbers for anytime TD scorers aren’t the biggest. Still, though, Dawson Knox leaps off the screen at +180.
The tight end has reportedly agreed to a four-year, $53.6 million extension, which shows just how highly he’s rated by the Bills' coaching staff. Last year, he broke out with 49 receptions for 587 yards and — importantly for this bet — nine touchdowns. He was a key part of their red zone offense and at 6-foot-4, he’s a big threat.
The Rams' defense was good against tight ends last year, giving up only two touchdowns to the position. But with the trust that the Bills' front office has put in Knox, as well as his performances last year, he is a great value play to score here.