The Week 12 slate opens with Thursday Night Football featuring the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans on November 20. Kickoff from NRG Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast live on NFL Network.
Our player props for this Thursday Night Football game target Davis Mills, James Cook and Woody Marks.
Let's dive into my Bills vs Texans player props for Thursday Night Football.
Bills vs Texans Player Props
- Davis Mills Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-110; bet365)
- James Cook Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110; bet365)
- Woody Marks Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120; bet365)
- Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (+125; bet365)
Bills vs Texans Prop Picks, Preview
Davis Mills Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-110)
We’re now two games into the Davis Mills experience for the Texans and he’s performed well. In fact, he’s performed so well that social media is awash with hot takes suggesting that the former Stanford man has a case to keep starting when C.J. Stroud returns.
That’s a debate for another day, with Stroud ruled out of Thursday Night Football, but we’re expecting to see Mills return to the ground with a bump.
Mills’ two starts have come against two poor teams. The Jaguars aren’t a great team and their defense has given up the seventh most passing yards per game, and the Titans are just a flat-out bad team.
Now, Mills faces a Bills defense that has given up the second-fewest passing yards per game (169.7). Mills hasn’t shown in the past that he’s an elite quarterback and there’s nothing to suggest here that his passing yard total should be as high as it is.
Pick: Davis Mills Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-110; bet365)
James Cook Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
There are two main reasons to fade James Cook on TNF.
Firstly, we need to look at his usage over the past two weeks. After seeing a season-high 27 carries in Week 9, that dropped to 13 and 16 over the past two weeks.
In those games, Cook managed 53 yards against the Dolphins, who had given up an average of 142.6 rushing yards per game beforehand, and just 48 against the Bucs, who had given up an average of 100.4 per game.
With Cook looking less productive over the previous two weeks and seeing his yards per carry drop to well below his season average of 5.3, it’s bad news that he now faces a rushing defense that's giving up the third-fewest yards per game, with an average of 87.1.
Pick: James Cook Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110; bet365)
Woody Marks Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Woody Marks has been a positive addition to the Texans roster after being drafted in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft. He wasn’t selected with the intention of being a starter this soon, but thanks to injuries and his impressive attitude, he’s risen to the top of the depth chart.
Marks managed just 44 yards in his last game against the Titans, but what was pleasing was that the team trusted him enough to give him a season-high 18 carries.
He has a real chance to bounce back from that on Thursday Night Football against a Bills defense giving up a staggering 153 yards per game. The Bills allowed Sean Tucker and De’Von Achane to both rack up 100+ yards against them over the past two weeks.
If Mills is struggling to get things going with the pass, then we could see the team really focus on establishing the run with Marks.
Pick: Woody Marks Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120; Bet365)
Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (+125)
We’re doubling down on Marks and taking the former USC man to find the end zone.
He’s only scored four touchdowns this season, which aren’t elite numbers by any stretch, but his touchdowns are split between the rushing and receiving variety. It’s clear the Texans trust him in both areas. Combine that with the aforementioned increase in carries and his chances look even better.
Marks leads the team in rushing attempts, which isn’t a surprise given the other players on the roster, but what does stand out is that he’s had five red-zone targets, converting two for touchdowns.
That puts him level with Dalton Schultz, Jayden Higgins and Xavier Hutchinson for red-zone targets and tied for second behind Nico Collins. Marks' role is increasing and he’s establishing himself as a playmaker.
Pick: Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (+125; Bet365)
Editor's Note: A parlay of these props is not the author's formal recommendation. These picks have value as straight bets.
Bills vs Texans Prop Bets
- Davis Mills Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-110; bet365)
- James Cook Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110; bet365)
- Woody Marks Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120; bet365)
- Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (+125; bet365)
