The NFL Divisional Round begins with a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field in Denver, Colorado. This game will be broadcast live on CBS at 4:30 p.m. ET.
- For more NFL playoff coverage, check out our Bills vs Broncos preview, which includes picks and props for today's AFC Divisional Round showdown.
Continue below for Divisional Round odds and my Broncos vs Bills parlay, which includes three correlated player props.
Broncos vs Bills Parlay
- Bills Moneyline -105
- Marvin Mims Over 1.5 Receptions -130
- Adam Trautman Over 7.5 Receiving Yards -110
- RJ Harvey Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts -145
Parlay Odds: +825 (bet365)
Broncos vs Bills Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -115 |
- Broncos vs Bills Moneyline: Broncos -115, Bills -105
- Broncos vs Bills Over/Under: 46 (-110o / -110u)
- Broncos vs Bills Spread: Broncos -1.5 (-110), Bills +1.5 (-110)
Broncos vs Bills Preview, Parlay Pick
Bills Moneyline
They say defense travels well, but if you're going to make it through the gauntlet that is the AFC, you're going to need your offense to show up, and that's where the Bills have the edge in this matchup.
Yes, the Denver defense was tremendous, but this is going to be the best offense they've faced this season in terms of DVOA. Despite the Bills receiving corps injuries, they still rank third in offensive DVOA as they are very efficent with Josh Allen at the helm.
As for the Broncos offense, the same cannot be said. They are middle of the pack at best, ranking 14th in points per game and 15th in yards per play. It could even be argued that Bo Nix took a step back as he ranked 19th in completion percentage and 29th in yards per pass.
Nix and company did struggle against the run, but Denver is 22nd in rush rate. That means Nix is going to have to step up after weeks of rest against a Buffalo defense that ranked third in yards per pass and fourth in opponent completion percentage.
The Bills have the edge in this matchup.
Marvin Mims Over 1.5 Receptions
When the Broncos trail in this matchup, they are going to be forced to air it out, and this game script should open up additional opportunities for multiple pass-catchers. The first of those to target is Marvin Mims.
Mims has seen his role decrease this season with the emergence of Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin, but he still averaged 3.4 targets per game. He hauled in 78 percent of his targets, which led him to exceed this mark in 11 of 15 games this season.
Look for him to remain a safe option for Nix in their comeback effort.
Adam Trautman Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
The next pass-catcher is being tremendously undervalued. Tight end Adam Trautman was not a big part of the Broncos' offense, but he made an impact with his limited target share.
Trautman caught 86 percent of his 23 targets this season with an average of 9.2 yards per reception. While his target share may be low, his opportunity is high as he quietly outsnapped fellow tight end Evan Engram by a wide margin this season.
A trailing game script should give him the lone reception he needs to go over this total.
'RJ Harvey Under 14.5 Rush Attempts
Finally, the one player negatively impacted by this game script is running back RJ Harvey. We already went over how Denver does not run the ball often in general, and this game script points to fewer carries for the Broncos' lead back.
While he's been the starter for a number of weeks since JK Dobbins went down, Harvey has only received at least 15 carries three times this season.
In addition to the data, the market has taken a firm stance on this as well. The price on this opened around -120, and a near 25-cent move is steep. Many books have even lowered his total to 13.5, which would be a smaller edge on this under.
Broncos vs Bills Parlay
- Bills Moneyline -105
- Marvin Mims Over 1.5 Receptions -130
- Adam Trautman Over 7.5 Receiving Yards -110
- RJ Harvey Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts -145
Parlay Odds: +825 (bet365)
