The Denver Broncos host the Buffalo Bills to open the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs on Saturday, Jan. 17. Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo., is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Bills vs Broncos will broadcast on CBS.
The Broncos are 1.5-point favorites over the Bills on the spread (Broncos -1.5; -105), with the over/under set at 46 total points. Denver is a -115 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Buffalo is -105 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Bills vs Broncos picks for the Divisional Round, which include predictions for the spread, game total, Bills team total, and three player props
Bills vs Broncos Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs Broncos Odds
- Bills vs Broncos Moneyline: Bills -105, Broncos -115
- Bills vs Broncos Spread: Bills +1.5, Broncos -1.5
- Bills vs Broncos Total: 46
NFL odds via bet365
Bills vs Broncos Spread Prediction
It feels difficult to handicap this Divisional Round matchup with confidence but there are several factors that lead me to believe the Broncos have the upper hand in their meeting with the Bills today.
Denver is clearly the healthier team as Buffalo has a number of players dealing with ailments. Josh Allen will not be 100% when he faces one of the league’s top pass rushes and his cast of skill players will also be limited to a thinner rotation.
The Bills' offensive staff already asked Allen to win them their wild-card game against the Jaguars with a dropback rate 8% above their regular season approach and they will likely have to rely on his arm again as the ground attack has sputtered in recent games.
When disregarding a game against the Jets in which James Cook had just two carries, the star running back has averaged just 3.4 yards per rush over his last two games.
In the games the Bills suffered losses during the regular season, there was undoubtedly a common theme — their offensive line could not hold up against the opposing pass rush. In their most recent three defeats, to the Eagles, Texans and Falcons, Allen was sacked a total of 17 times. The lack of protection also greatly hindered their ability to move the sticks on 3rd down. Allen and company converted just 12-of-40 (30%) of 3rd downs into a new set of downs.
Too much is working against the road team in this spot to expect them to advance to the AFC title game.
Pick: Broncos -1 (-112)
Bills vs Broncos Over/Under Picks
By Stuckey
I’m backing the Buffalo Bills team total Under 23.5 points against Denver and also like the full-game under.
The Bills’ offense is beat up. They’re operating with just three healthy wide receivers. Curtis Samuel was activated off injured reserve, so he’ll be available, but Dalton Kincaid is not fully healthy, and Josh Allen has taken a number of hits recently.
Now they’re on a short week, heading to Denver to face a rested Broncos defense that should be close to full strength, outside of Brandon Jones. Dre Greenlaw returns to practice. The return of key defenders significantly improves Denver’s run defense, which matters a lot in this matchup.
Given the lack of wide receiver depth, the Bills are likely to rely more on tight ends — possibly even three-tight end formations — and go heavy with extra linemen or a fullback. Reggie Gilliam is on the roster, so those looks are available.
The issue is that the Broncos are a top-three defense against 12 and 13 personnel, and they’ve been very good in those situations.
Denver also plays a lot of man coverage, even against scrambling quarterbacks, and they’re going to play a ton of man in this game. The Bills’ offense has been significantly worse against man coverage this year, and that’s not a Josh Allen issue. It’s a receiver separation issue.
With the Broncos blitzing and being able to generate pressure, this sets up similarly to the games where Buffalo struggled most this season — like against Houston and Atlanta — when defenses had good corners and could bring pressure.
Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are going to play a lot of two-high coverage, try to take away explosive plays, and disguise their coverage. They can still generate pressure, even though their run defense isn’t very good. Because of that, I think the Broncos will lean into the run.
If Buffalo takes away the explosive plays, Bo Nix becomes very inefficient on a down-to-down basis. He’ll hit a few big plays, but against two-high coverage, he has the lowest yards per attempt in the league. He’s taking short passes and checkdowns, and you’re forcing Denver to drive the field and be consistent play after play. Most of the time, those drives aren’t going to end with six points.
That leads to a lot of four- or five-minute drives that gain limited yardage and end in punts, with maybe a few longer drives that result in field goals. This game sets up as something like 20–17.
Picks: Under 46.5; Bills Team Total Under 23.5
Bills vs Broncos Player Props: Bo Nix
By Brit Devine
The books have adjusted the Josh Allen's rushing lines to a good spot, but they forgot to do the same with Bo Nix.
To close out his rookie year last season, Nix went over this number in his last four games, including a loss to the Bills in the playoffs.
To close out this season (as the Broncos were fighting every game to get the first seed), Nix hit the over on this number in four of his last seven games, with two of the misses coming in at 18 and 20 yards.
The Bills allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to QBs during the regular season and the highest yards per carry on QB runs.
With everything on the line, Nix is much more likely to fight for extra yards whenever he takes off compared to a regular-season game — this line just doesn't reflect playoff football to me.
Pick: Bo Nix Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114); bet to Over 24.5
Bills vs Broncos Player Props: Courtland Sutton
Projections have all three of the main Broncos' WRs well over their receiving props.
It will be next to impossible for all three of Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant to come in under each of their respective numbers even in a low-output passing performance, and it would be incredibly easy for all three to go over, even in a mediocre passing game.
Not counting Week 18, Sutton topped 49.5 receiving yards in 5-of-6 games; he had at least 10 targets in four of those games.
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Bills vs Broncos Player Props: Brandin Cooks
By Stuckey
Brandin Cooks just can't get separation anymore. Maybe Josh Allen will connect on a deep shot or two with him, but this is a much tougher task than it was against Jacksonville, a game he finished with three catches. The Broncos’ secondary is much better.
Denver also plays a man-heavy defense, not a zone-heavy defense, and is much better at generating pressure than Jacksonville.
Additionally, I think both teams are going to lean into the run. There are going to be fewer opportunities for Cooks to get receptions, and it’s just tough for me to see him getting much play. I think the Bills are going to lean on the run, Allen’s legs, James Cook – not only running the ball, but out of the backfield – and then the tight ends.
Pick: Brandin Cooks Under 2.5 Receptions (-130)
