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Buccaneers vs Steelers Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6

Buccaneers vs Steelers Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6 article feature image
Credit:

Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Kenny Pickett.

  • The Steelers are facing key injuries on defense and will be without T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
  • Pittsburgh is a 10-point home underdog against Tom Brady's Buccaneers.
  • Dylan Wilkerson reveals his betting strategy below.

Buccaneers vs. Steelers Odds

Sunday, Oct. 16
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Buccaneers Odds -10
Steelers Odds +10
Moneyline -460 / +360
Over/Under 45.5
Odds via FanDuel.

This is a matchup between two fundamentally different teams.

The Buccaneers have a new head coach, while the Steelers have a seasoned leader at the helm. Pittsburgh has a rookie quarterback making his second career start; Tampa Bay has the greatest quarterback of all time making his 368th career start.

Given the stark difference in experience both of these teams bring, Vegas is projecting a huge disparity with the Bucs settling as 10-point favorites. 

The Buccaneers receiving core has been a carousel with the likes of Cole Beasley, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans being present, then not being present, and being present again.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have made a complete transition at QB from Mitchell Trubisky to Pickett. They are also dealing with a myriad of injuries this week which caused late line movement.

Buccaneers vs. Steelers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Buccaneers and Steelers match up statistically:

Buccaneers vs. Steelers DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 13 16
Pass DVOA 8 18
Rush DVOA 29 17
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 24 3
Pass DVOA 24 1
Rush DVOA 26 14

Let me give you a quick walkthrough of my betting process:

1. I look at bet/handle distribution.

2. I look at stats.

3. I look at the available props.

4. I look at the situation. Normally, the situation is not as important as the first two, but sometimes I get to step four and it really matters. This week is a great example: it means a lot.

I love the stats, and I put a lot of weight in the numbers. These two teams’ stats are pretty even, but even if they weren’t, it is nearly impossible to quantify the talent with how frequently their rosters have changed over the last couple weeks. Because of this, we are forced to look at the situation. 

The Steelers are coming off of an embarrassing loss to a Buffalo team many regard as the best in the NFL. To the same accord, the Bucs are coming off a home win against a divisional rival. However, the Falcons were playing without their No. 1 back (Cordarrelle Patterson) and starting tight end (Kyle Pitts).

Betting Picks

This is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers. Their blowout loss is fresh on the mind, but what might not be so fresh is the struggles Tampa had against a diminished Falcons team.

I am going to cut Pittsburgh some slack here and take the Steelers and the points.

QuickSlip: Steelers +10 | Steelers +9

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