Chargers vs Colts Player Props: Expert Pick for Jelani Woods

Jelani Woods Receiving Yards

Kylen Granson has been ruled out, which means Jelani Woods should see an increase in routes run tonight.

Woods has only cleared a 30% routes run rate in three games this season, but in those contests, he exceeded this total (19.5). In Week 12, Granson was out and Woods ran a route on 69% of dropbacks and cashed in with a massive line.

Week 6: 36% (2/27/1)
Week 12: 69% (8/98/0)
Week 15: 30% (1/36/0)

With the Colts mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, I can see them trying to get Woods as many reps as possible. They took him in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but while he's a talent — his 4.61 40-yard time is the second fastest by a player 6’7” or taller — he's still fairly raw.

Nick Foles gets his first start of the season and he doesn’t have much chemistry with any of the pass-catchers, which should only help a player typically further down the target pecking order (like Woods). Foles has historically targeted his tight ends at a fairly high rate — another reason why I like Woods.

I’m projecting Woods’ median receiving yards closer to 24.5 yards, but look at my underlying projections feeding into that: 50% routes run rate, 19.5% targets per route run rate and a 68.5% catch rate.

It seems like my projection is a bit on the conservative side, meaning he has even more upside in this market than my underlying numbers are giving credit for.