Chargers vs Colts Player Props: Expert Pick for Jelani Woods

Chargers vs Colts Player Props: Expert Pick for Jelani Woods article feature image

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Jelani Woods.

Follow Sean Koerner in the Action App to get all his betting picks.

Jelani Woods Receiving Yards

PropJelani Woods Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
MatchupChargers vs. Colts
Day, TimeMonday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Best BookDraftKings

Kylen Granson has been ruled out, which means Jelani Woods should see an increase in routes run tonight.

Woods has only cleared a 30% routes run rate in three games this season, but in those contests, he exceeded this total (19.5). In Week 12, Granson was out and Woods ran a route on 69% of dropbacks and cashed in with a massive line.

Week 6: 36% (2/27/1)
Week 12: 69% (8/98/0)
Week 15: 30% (1/36/0)

With the Colts mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, I can see them trying to get Woods as many reps as possible. They took him in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but while he's a talent — his 4.61 40-yard time is the second fastest by a player 6’7” or taller — he's still fairly raw.

Nick Foles gets his first start of the season and he doesn’t have much chemistry with any of the pass-catchers, which should only help a player typically further down the target pecking order (like Woods). Foles has historically targeted his tight ends at a fairly high rate — another reason why I like Woods.

I’m projecting Woods’ median receiving yards closer to 24.5 yards, but look at my underlying projections feeding into that: 50% routes run rate, 19.5% targets per route run rate and a 68.5% catch rate.

It seems like my projection is a bit on the conservative side, meaning he has even more upside in this market than my underlying numbers are giving credit for.

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