3 Chargers vs. Raiders Prop Bets & Picks for Thursday Night Football

3 Chargers vs. Raiders Prop Bets & Picks for Thursday Night Football article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Philip Rivers

  • We've identified three of the best prop bets for Thursday Night Football featuring the Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders.
  • Let's run through our picks for Philip Rivers' rushing yards, Josh Jacobs' receiving yards and Zay Jones' receiving yards.

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Chargers vs. Raiders Prop Bets & Picks

Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders.

Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

THE PICK: Under 13.5 receiving yards (-114)

Jacobs has had a fantastic rookie season. He’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has six rushing touchdowns through his first eight games. Overall, he’s graded out as the top runner in the entire NFL per Pro Football Focus.

That said, the one thing he has struggled to do is catch the football. He’s logged only 15 targets all season, and he’s received two or fewer targets in six of his first eight games. That includes last week, when he could’ve been charged with two drops on just two targets. Jacobs has averaged only 9.3 yards per reception, so he’ll need to be effective with his limited targets to hit the over.

I’m fine with betting against Jacobs as a receiver in this spot. I’d play the under up to -125.

Raiders WR Zay Jones

THE PICK: Over 27.5 receiving yards (-125)

Jones was a midseason addition after being acquired from the Buffalo Bills, and his role with the team appears to be growing. He played on just 39% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps in Week 8, but that number jumped all the way to 92% in Week 9. Tyrell Williams was active in both contests, so Jones managed to do that despite the team being at full strength.

Jones also earned four targets in his last contest, which ranked second among the Raiders wide receivers. Derek Carr only needed to throw the ball 31 times in that game, so it’s reasonable to expect his target numbers to increase moving forward.

This is also a solid spot for Jones. He’s expected to see the majority of his snaps vs. Chargers cornerback Michael Davis, who has easily been their worst corner this season in terms of PFF grade. The Chargers defense also ranks just 23rd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.

Jones led the Raiders WRs in snaps last week, so I don’t think 27.5 yards is a very high bar to clear. I like the over up to -145.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers

THE PICK: Under 0.5 rushing yards (-125)

I love Rivers. He stomps around on the sidelines. He makes funny faces. He has like 100 children. The dude is great for anyone who enjoys football.

That said, he’s easily one of the worst athletes at the quarterback position in 2019. That’s obviously not his fault — Father Time is undefeated, and Rivers is 37 years old and has had a major knee injury. He wasn’t exactly Michael Vick when he broke into the league either: He ran just a 5.08 40-yard dash at the NFL combine.

Rivers did start the season with at least six rushing yards in his first three games, but he’s logged zero yards or fewer in each of his past six. Maybe he’ll get a yard or two on a QB sneak, but that’s really all you have to worry about with him today.

This prop is just way underpriced — -125 odds have an implied probability of 55.56%, but Rivers has posted zero rushing yards or fewer in 31 of his past 41 games (75.61%). I’d play this up to -200.

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