Early Sharp Action Hitting Chiefs vs. Broncos on Thursday Night Football
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
- The Chiefs opened as 5-point favorites against the Broncos in Week 7's Thursday Night Football matchup.
- The Action Network's tools reveal how pros have bet that point spread since opening.
Professional bettors didn’t even bother letting Week 6 come to an end before shifting their attention to Week 7’s Thursday Night Football matchup.
According to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, sharps have been making moves on the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread since Sunday night.
Kansas City is reeling. Thanks in large part (probably) to an ankle injury limiting Patrick Mahomes’ mobility, the Chiefs have lost two in a row — both at Arrowhead. The second-best record in the AFC now belongs to the Buffalo freaking Bills.
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The Broncos, on the other hand, are having the exact opposite season. While the Chiefs just dropped their first two games of the season, Denver has just won its first two in back-to-back weeks.
By limiting the Chargers and Titans to 16 and zero points, respectively, Joe Flacco hasn’t needed to eclipse the 20-point mark to get his first two victories in a Broncos uniform.
None of this is to suggest than anyone is questioning the better team, but with the two trending in completely different directions, this line has settled at a much smaller number than most would expect, and sharps have helped shape the surprising spread.
Books that opened this spread on Sunday were in the KC -5/-5.5 range for the most part. And since this line opened, 83% of bettors have laid the points with the Chiefs, making that the most common ticket on the Week 7 slate so far.
Despite that, this number was quickly adjusted down to 4, and by Sunday Night Football’s kickoff, it had dropped through that key number to 3.5.
With such a drastic move against such a public side, it’s pretty evident how sharps are feeling about this game, but SI Bet Signals still serve as confirmation.
Just since Sunday, four signals –indicators of smart money causing market-wide movement — have already hit the Broncos at numbers ranging from +5 to +3.5. The most recent moves have convinced some books to even drop to a juiced-up 3.
It’s also worth noting that our money percentages are tracking 28% of the loot on Denver, so while that discrepancy means the Broncos are driving bigger bets (the ones more likely to be made by sharps), they aren’t posing a monetary liability at this point.
Instead, oddsmakers are reacting solely out of respect for their customers taking the points.