Texans vs Commanders NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks
Pictured: Brian Robinson Jr. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
- The Commanders are road favorites in Week 11 against the Texans.
- Washington is coming off a big win over the Eagles on Monday night.
- Dylan Wilkerson explains the betting trend he's following for his best bet.
Texans vs Commanders Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -104 | 41.5 -104o / -118u | +140 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -118 | 41.5 -104o / -118u | -166 |
The Commanders have a lot to be excited about after Week 10. Washington traveled to Philadelphia and took care of the undefeated Eagles in primetime.
Taylor Heinicke has proven he can hang with the best of them on the big stage, and the defense has held its own, even in the absence of Chase Young.
The Texans, on the other hand, have had a season full of woes and sit at the bottom of the AFC South with a single win.
How do the Texans match up against the Commanders? Let’s take a look.
Texans vs. Commanders Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Texans and Commanders match up statistically:
Texans vs. Commanders DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 25 | 28 | |
| Pass DVOA | 27 | 25 | |
| Rush DVOA | 25 | 31 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 30 | 13 | |
| Pass DVOA | 30 | 20 | |
| Rush DVOA | 26 | 2 | |
Over the past couple weeks, we have been fading this Texans run defense. In Week 7, we backed Josh Jacobs to go over his rushing yardstotal. In Week 8 we backed Derrick Henry and in Week 10 we did the same with Saquon Barkley.
All of that was with good reason.
The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL this season and are giving up the fourth most rushing yards per attempt. In their past four games, the Texans have allowed over 110 rushing yards to running backs. It seems Houston hasn't taken any steps to solve its issues against the run.
Heinicke is set to lead the Commanders for the fifth consecutive week, and it is worth noting that Washington’s offensive game plan changed vastly once he took over at quarterback.
Under Carson Wentz, the Commanders were passing the ball, on average, over 38 times per game. That decreased to 30.2 attempts per game once Heinicke took over. That resulted in an influx of rushing attempts for the Commanders, who have been averaging 32 rushing attempts per game.
Brian Robinson Jr. has seen the bulk of that work and is averaging just shy of 17 carries per game since Heinicke took over.
Betting Picks
This week, I will be fading the Houston Texans’ rush defense yet again.
It is clear the Commanders have transitioned to being a run-first team under Heinicke and with Robinson seeing a majority of touches in the backfield, I am going to back him this week.
BetMGM has the lowest total, as of 8:20 a.m. ET on Sunday morning, at 64.5. You can use the Action Labs Player Props tool to get the latest player totals.
Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. Over 64.5 Rush Yards | Bet to 72.5
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