Chargers vs Broncos Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 14 Betting Picks
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Chargers vs Broncos Odds, Prediction
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +140 |
The latest Chargers vs. Broncos odds have Los Angeles installed as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45. I'll be targeting the game total for my NFL pick in this Week 14 AFC West showdown at SoFi Stadium.
The Broncos (6-6) and Chargers (5-7) are longshots to make the playoffs with only five games left in the season. However, whoever wins can cling to some semblance of hope while the loser can likely start making vacation plans for January. No matter who comes out on top, there are several reasons to believe this will be a low-scoring affair, which is why I’m targeting the under for my Chargers vs. Broncos prediction.
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Chargers vs Broncos Pick
Those backing the under for both the Bolts and the Broncos have made hefty profits this season.
The over hit in the Chargers' first two games, but only once since (Week 10 vs. Detroit). They enter Week 14 tied with four other teams for the most unders this season with nine. Meanwhile, the total’s gone under in six of Denver’s last seven games, including three straight on the road.
There’s a good chance both trends continue as neither offense is particularly suited to take advantage of the other’s defensive shortcomings.
The Chargers were supposed to have an electric offense powered by Justin Herbert. However, between Austin Ekeler’s ineffectiveness and Mike Williams’ Week 3 season-ending injury, it’s basically been the Keenan Allen show. His league-leading 102 catches are a whopping 71 more than his next-closest teammate while his 138 targets are 91 more than the next-nearest Charger.
Herbert throws the ball Allen’s way on 32.2% of his dropbacks and defenses that mitigate his damage have more often than not held the Bolts in check. Denver is as well-equipped as any team to do just that.
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All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain has made a living locking down some of the best wideouts, and he may very well shadow him the entire game. If he doesn’t, Allen will have to deal with Ja’Quan McMillian in the slot. He’s quietly emerged as one of the top slot corners in the league. In fact, Pro Football Focus grades him as the 19th-best corner.
The Bolts' best chance to move the ball might come on the ground as the Broncos give up a league-worst 149.7 rushing yards per game. However, the Chargers average a paltry 97.9 yards per game and rank 25th in DVOA. Things have gotten so desperate that coach Brandon Staley told reporters that Ekeler, who is averaging a disappointing 3.5 yards per carry, will have "competition for carries."
Meanwhile, the Broncos’ offense might not be able to take advantage of a Chargers defense that ranks 28th in DVOA. The Bolts give up the second-most passing yards per game (265.8), but Denver averages only 183.3 through the air, which is seventh fewest. Additionally, teams have churned out explosive pass after explosive pass against Los Angeles. However, Russell Wilson only has 29 passes over 20 yards this season, which ranks 19th among quarterbacks.
Finally, to the Chargers' credit, their defense has looked better of late. They just shut out the Patriots, but that has more to do with brutal weather conditions and an even more brutal New England offense. More impressive was how they held Lamar Jackson and a potent Ravens offense to only 20 points two weeks back. It’s hard to see Denver putting up that many points if the Bolts put forth a similar performance.
Chargers vs. Broncos
Betting Picks & Predictions
I see this high-stakes game being a low-scoring affair.
Neither offense is particularly explosive. The Chargers are basically Keenan Allen or bust, and they’ve been awful in the red zone of late, averaging the fewest touchdowns per appearance over the last three weeks (0.7). Denver averages the fewest offensive plays per game in the league (58.1) and its offense is the definition of average.
The under has been money in the bank for both teams. Considering each offense doesn’t appear primed to take advantage of the other’s defensive shortcomings, I see this being an active game for the punting and field-goal units. I’ll gladly take the under in what might be a surprisingly physical and brutal AFC West showdown.
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