Dolphins Playoff Chances, Scenarios, Super Bowl Odds, More

Dolphins Playoff Chances, Scenarios, Super Bowl Odds, More article feature image
Credit:

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins Playoff Chances

Our Model’s Projection
To make playoffs
73%

The Dolphins can beat the Bills to get in. But will Josh Allen start for Buffalo? That’s to be determined, but the betting market reacted Tuesday like the Bills would sit starters.

If the Dolphins lose, though, they would need a loss from any of the Ravens, Colts or Browns.

The must-have app for NFL bettors

Custom scoreboard for your NFL bets

Free picks from experts

Live win probabilities for every game

Dolphins Odds at Bills

Odds
Bet Now At
Dolphins +1.5

The line opened with the Bills as 4-point favorites but dropped to 1.5 early in the week.

Our NFL PRO Projections reveal a significant edge in this matchup, giving an ‘A’ grade on the Bills at this price. That’s not great news for Dolphins fans.

» More On Dolphins-Bills «

How the Dolphins Got Here

Whatever the order, however it’s happened, the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa has worked for Miami.

Fitzpatrick opened the season as the starter, leading the team to a 3-3 start — pretty good for a team with a preseason win total of 6.5. But head coach Brian Flores made the call to start the third overall draft pick Tagovailoa following the bye.

Miami won his first three starts, but injury brought Fitzpatrick back against the Jets. When Tagovailoa returned, he struggled at times and Flores showed he’s not afraid to make an in-game decision to replace him.

Staring down a grim playoff chance with a loss to Las Vegas, Fitzpatrick took over for Tagovailoa in the fourth quarter to lead a comeback win and keep Miami in the picture.

It’s fair to ask whether that means Fitzpatrick gives the best chance for Miami to win, but Flores will stick with Tagovailoa as the starter.

Dolphins Super Bowl Odds

Odds
Bet Now At
+6000

Our model gives the Dolphins a 7% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 3.1% shot to win it. Based on those projections and the +6000 odds, our edge calculator gives you roughly $89 of value for every $100 bet.