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Dolphins vs Bills Odds, Preview: Buffalo Favored in AFC Playoff Matchup

Dolphins vs Bills Odds, Preview: Buffalo Favored in AFC Playoff Matchup article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Tyreek Hill (left) and Josh Allen.

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds

Date: Sunday, Jan. 15
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Dolphins Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+10
-110
44.5
-110o / -110u
+380
Bills Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-10
-110
44.5
-110o / -110u
-490
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

For the third time this season, we get Dolphins vs. Bills odds.

Both team won its home game in the regular season, and both games were close. Miami has since dealt with another concussion for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which was suffered during the Dolphins’ loss to the Packers on Christmas.

Tagovailoa’s status for this game certainly shapes how the line will move throughout the week. Skylar Thompson was thoroughly unimpressive in Miami’s Week 18 win over the Jets, which was powered by the Dolphins defense against a Joe Flacco-led offense.

Get the initial Dolphins vs. Bills odds and a breakdown of both teams below.

Dolphins vs. Bills Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Dolphins and Bills match up statistically:

Dolphins vs. Bills DVOA Breakdown (Rankings Entering Week 18)
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 2 17
Pass DVOA 2 25
Rush DVOA 11 6
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 5 4
Pass DVOA 3 9
Rush DVOA 16 3
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Anthony Dabbundo‘s Team Breakdowns

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo’s incredibly difficult week ended with more encouraging positive news about the health status of safety Damar Hamlin, who was able to watch Sunday’s Week 18 win. The Bills won’t be the No. 1 seed anymore because Kansas City beat Las Vegas, but the Bills are live to win the AFC and make it back to the Super Bowl. They are the most well-rounded team in the AFC given the defensive weaknesses in Kansas City.

Josh Allen uses his legs more in must-win games, and we saw that in the playoffs last season against the Patriots and Chiefs. His scrambling and running ability make up for a very lackluster traditional running game. James Cook has shown some signs of explosiveness in recent weeks, but the Bills offense is still just 11th in Rushing Success Rate since Week 10.

If you exclude turnovers from the plays, the defense hasn’t been as dominant in the second half of the season either. They rank 10th in EPA per play and 11th in Success Rate allowed. Injuries in the secondary and to Von Miller have left them somewhat vulnerable to these elite offenses.

Buffalo’s success will come down to more consistent play from Allen and red-zone efficiency. Allen remains elite off-script, but he’s been stacking turnover worthy plays from traditional dropbacks and the offense hasn’t been nearly as sharp or clean at executing underneath as it was early in the season. That plus a lack of run game has hurt them in the red zone, too.


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Miami Dolphins

Somehow, Mike McDaniel went from early season coach of the year candidate to the potential hot seat. The Dolphins were flying high at 8-3 after destroying the Texans. Since then, the Dolphins lost Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion, lost Teddy Bridgewater to injury and also lost football games to the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, Packers and Patriots.

Miami salvaged the season with the win against the New York Jets, but it’s hard to imagine what they’ll look like in the playoffs. The offense is extremely explosive thanks to a good running game, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill. But on a play to play basis, it’s not a consistent offense even with Tagovailoa.

It’s hard to imagine that Tagovailoa’s going to be able to play when he’s had three concussions in one NFL season, but Skylar Thompson hasn’t shown much to suggest he’s about to beat one of the best teams in the AFC on the road in round one either. McDaniel can scheme an offense as well as anyone, and he’s elevated Tagovailoa, but sometimes it’s about the Jimmys and the Joes. Miami was due to regress at 8-3, and even now at 9-8, they’re an average NFL team at best given their quarterback situation.

The defense has a good pass rush on paper, but the defense has been torn up by any competent offense it has faced this season.

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