Dolphins vs Chargers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 1

Dolphins vs Chargers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 1 article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa (left) and Justin Herbert (right).

Dolphins vs Chargers Odds

Sunday, Sept. 10
4:25 p.m. ET
Dolphins Odds
-110o / -110u
Chargers Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Dolphins vs. Chargers odds have Los Angeles laying a field goal in a rematch of an NFL Sunday Night Football matchup from last season.

Many pundits believe it was Brandon Staley and the Chargers defense that revealed the kryptonite to the high-flying Dolphins offense last season. There were 40 points scored in that game, but oddsmakers lined this game a full 10 points higher — and with good reason. The Chargers offense, led by new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, will change the narrative this time around.

Let's make a Dolphins vs. Chargers pick for Week 1 and break down the matchup.

Dolphins vs. Chargers

Matchup Analysis

In 2022, eight of the top nine offenses in avoiding third downs qualified for the NFL playoffs. The Chargers, despite ranking 30th, made the playoffs, but that doesn't seem sustainable. Justin Herbert completed more passes on third down than any other quarterback and his 116 third-down completions were the second-most since 2000 (StatMuse). Herbert finished the season averaging an embarrassing 6.8 yards per attempt, a mark in line with the likes of Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan.

The Chargers offense managed just seven touchdowns outside of the red zone last season — the same number as the Broncos, Commanders, Jets, Panthers and Cardinals.

Well, things are about to change on the offensive side of the ball, thanks to both new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and the health of the offensive personnel. According to Sharp Football, when Herbert had both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the pass route (something that occurred only 175 times), his yards per attempt increased to 7.9, his completion percentage was above 77% and his passer rating sky-rocketed to 106.4. All of those marks would have ranked him top three in the NFL.

Bet Miami vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel

Dolphins +3

Chargers -3

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New Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has seen Herbert several times in his career. Fangio blitzed less (on average) than his defense was accustomed to in past meetings with the Chargers. If Fangio again opts to call a slightly more conservative game plan, it will be a mistake.

The return of 2021 second-team All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater will assist in giving Herbert ample time to drive the ball down the field against a secondary that can be exposed without Jalen Ramsey in the lineup. Xavien Howard was 91st out of 120 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage grade in 2022, according to Pro Football Focus. His counterpart, Eli Apple, ranked 97th.

On the other side of the ball, Miami's offense will be missing its left tackle. Terron Armstead, who surrendered just one pressure on 33 dropbacks against the Chargers last year, has been ruled out. In that game, the Chargers defense challenged Miami's receivers at the line of scrimmage and disrupted Miami's timing.

Tua Tagovailoa finished the game with a season-low completion percentage (35.7%) and 5.2 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa was a marksman over the middle for much of the season but managed only 52 yards on 14 attempts inside the numbers against the Chargers.

Dolphins vs. Chargers

Betting Picks & Predictions

Nobody knows whether the end of the Dolphins' 2022 season was a foreshadowing of things to come in 2023. However, we do know that the Chargers offense will be healthier and more aggressive this season.

The Chargers are going to play with pace and may lead the league in pass attempts. I expect them to make a statement Sunday and light up the scoreboard against an over-matched Dolphins secondary.

Lay the points with the home team on Sunday afternoon.

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