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Lions vs Dolphins Odds, Picks, Prediction | NFL Week 8

Lions vs Dolphins Odds, Picks, Prediction | NFL Week 8 article feature image
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Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Waddle (No. 17) and Tua Tagovailoa (No. 1).

  • The Dolphins are 4-point favorites in a potentially high-scoring matchup with the Lions.
  • Both teams hope to find their offensive rhythm again, especially the struggling Lions.
  • Landon Silinsky breaks down the matchup and lays out how he's betting the game below.

Lions vs Dolphins Odds

Sunday, Oct. 30
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Lions Odds +4
Dolphins Odds -4
Moneyline +164 / -196
Over/Under 51.5
Odds via FanDuel.

The 4-3 Dolphins travel to Detroit to play the 1-5 Lions, who have played way better than their record indicates. Detroit plays extremely hard for head coach Dan Campbell and is severely hamstrung by one of the worst defenses in recent memory.

Let’s start with Miami, who finally got Tua Tagovailoa back last week after he missed two weeks with a concussion. He looked a little out of sync, which was very much expected, but still threw for 261 yards and a touchdown. He also had four rushing attempts, which was nice to see, but it would also be nice to see him learn to slide and avoid taking these egregious hits.

Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill once again dominated the target share, combining for 18 of 35 targets. Raheem Mostert has fully taken control of this backfield and saw 21 opportunities to Chase Edmonds’ nine.

As for the Lions, they played hard yet again against a tough Cowboys team, but fell short on the road. However, this week will be different because Dallas gets pressure on the quarterback at the fifth highest rate in the NFL, while the Dolphins rank 27th in that department. I bring this up because it’s well known that Jared Goff is historically very bad under pressure.

Dolphins vs. Lions Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Dolphins and Lions match up statistically:

Dolphins vs. Lions DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 6 31
Pass DVOA 3 31
Rush DVOA 17 29
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 15 20
Pass DVOA 19 25
Rush DVOA 12 7

Despite intercepting Kenny Pickett three times last Sunday night, this Dolphins defense looked extremely average, letting the Steelers drive down the field on multiple occasions throughout the game. This clearly shows up in the data as well, as the Dolphins sit a paltry 25th in pass defense DVOA, and 20th overall. This team can be scored against.

The good news for the Lions is that running back D’Andre Swift is back practicing in full after dealing with multiple injuries over the past few weeks. Star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown is still in the NFL’s concussion protocol, but it looks like he could be cleared in time for Sunday’s game. The Lions are going to need all hands on deck trying to compete against this electric Dolphins offense.


Bet Miami vs. Detroit
Dolphins -4 | Lions +4


Miami plays fast, throws the ball a ton and ranks sixth in offensive DVOA. On the other hand, Detroit has been a complete sieve on defense, sitting 31st in pass DVOA and 29th in rush DVOA, all while giving up an absurd 32.3 points per game.

As Tagovailoa continues to get back in the swing of things, I would assume this  would be a spot where Miami leans on the run a bit more than usual, especially when the opponent’s rush defense is so porous. The Lions have been absolutely gutted by opposing running backs this year, having allowed the most rushing touchdowns on the season (10) and the third most yards per carry allowed to the position.

On the Detroit side, it’s expected that they go pass heavy in this spot. Miami has been quite stingy against the run this season, and as stated above, simply doesn’t get pressure on the quarterback. There is a clear path for this game to turn into a shootout, and that is if the Lions score early and force Miami to unleash their two stallions at wide receiver.

Betting Picks

With the Lions getting fully healthy on the offensive side of the ball, I think they come out inspired at home against this middling Dolphins defense. They will be able to move the ball and score some points, which will force Miami to answer back, and we know how easy it is to score on the Lions defense.

This game has the highest total on the Week 8 slate, but in the two home games the Lions have played this season, the final scores have been 36-27 and 48-45. I like that trend to continue this week and fully expect some fireworks in this game. Give me the over here.

Quickslip: Over 51.5 | Bet to 52

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