Falcons vs. Redskins Betting Guide: Fade the Home Team?

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons

• Spread: Redskins -2.5
• Over/Under: 41.5
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

The Falcons host the Redskins in one of six Preseason Week 3 matchups on Thursday night. Let’s take a look at key storylines for both teams, complete with betting analysis.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins are "pretty confident" that they'll welcome Derrius Guice back to the field on Thursday night. The 2018 second-round pick has never registered an official touch in a preseason or regular-season game after tearing his ACL as a rookie, but Guice's lone carry (called back by a penalty) was certainly special.

We shouldn't expect Washington to hand Guice anything resembling a three-down workload; the Redskins still have Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson. Still, they'll need all the playmakers they can get to find success in 2019 with their current situation at quarterback and along the offensive line.

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones (foot/rest) won't be suiting up on Thursday night, but there a still few things working in Matt Ryan's favor.

1. The Redskins ran zone coverage at the 10th-highest rate in the league last season. Ryan posted a 101.8 QB rating, averaged 1.9 touchdowns per game and 7.9 yards per attempt against defenses that ran zone at a top-12 rate last season.
2. Ryan has averaged 7.8 yards per attempt with a 5.1% touchdown rate while completing 67% of his passes to produce an average of 18.2 fantasy points per game during his career inside. Those numbers fall to 7.1, 4.4%, 63% and 17.3, respectively, when Ryan has played outdoors.

Ryan has thrown double-digit passes during each of the Falcons' last three Week 3 preseason matchups, and he even attempted 14 passes last week. He's more than capable of stringing together a couple first-half scoring drives with Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper expected to be available.

I realize Dan Quinn is the worst preseason coach in the league against the spread, but I can't fade the better team at home when they're getting three points. Gimme the Falcons.

PICK: Falcons +2.5