Commanders vs Falcons Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet This Week 12 Underdog
Adam Hagy/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Mariota.
Commanders vs Falcons Odds
-112o / -108u
-112o / -108u
The Commanders are now 4-0-1 against the spread (ATS) and 4-1 straight-up (SU) since Taylor Heinicke took over at QB. Ron Rivera has shown his support by announcing Heinicke as the permanent starting QB, even though Carson Wentz is cleared to play.
On the other side, the Falcons are 1-4 ATS since starting the season a perfect 6-0 ATS. They have really struggled the last few weeks, but picked up a huge win against the Bears to get themselves back on track.
This is a massive game for both teams. The Falcons are very much still in contention in the NFC South, and both are in the running for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. This game could be the difference in who makes the playoffs out of these two teams, so both squads should give it everything they have.
Falcons vs. Commanders Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Falcons and Commanders match up statistically:
Falcons vs. Commanders DVOA Breakdown
This is a close matchup that will come down to execution. The Falcons and Commanders rank 17th and 18th, respectively, in overall DVOA.
However, they are polar opposites. The Falcons offense is 12th in DVOA, while the Commanders are 27th. On the other side of the ball, the Commanders have a defense that is 12th in defensive DVOA, while the Falcons defense comes in at 28th.
That makes these teams almost a perfect mirror image of each other. Both are also elite when it comes to special teams (per DVOA), with the Commanders fourth and the Falcons eighth.
Falcons +3.5 | Commanders -3.5
Because these teams match up so well, this game will come down to small margins. One advantage the Falcons have is their ability to get touchdowns in the red zone. They rank eighth in red-zone scoring percentage, as they score a touchdown 61.76% of the time. The Commanders only convert those trips into six points 51.72% of the time (23rd).
Also, a lot of the Commanders' ATS success has been as underdogs. However, in this spot, they sit as 4-point favorites. That means the back door will be very much in play. The stout Commanders defense has struggled late in games, ranking 20th in fourth quarter scoring defense.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have been great with late covers. They covered the -2.5 against the Bears on a field goal in the final two minutes. They won the fourth quarter 15-0 to cover against the Bucs. They scored 13 points in the fourth to win and cover against the Browns. They shut out the Seahawks in the fourth quarter to win and cover. They scored 17 in the fourth to cover against the Rams. On the road this year, the Falcons have a +29 fourth quarter scoring differential, which is by far the best mark in the league.
This game seems like a virtual coin flip. That creates value with the Falcons catching points, especially with how well they have done in backdoor situations this season.
The Falcons have done some of the little things that make the difference in covering games better than the Commanders this season. Taylor Heinicke has clearly been good for the Commanders' locker room, but statistically, he is not doing anything crazy. He won't be able to take advantage of this Falcons secondary like other quarterbacks.
I think this game could come down to a field goal in either direction.
Be sure to shop around for the best number using our live odds page, as Falcons +4 is available at some books.
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