Falcons vs Lions Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 3
Getty Images. Pictured: Desmond Ridder (left) and Jared Goff (right).
Falcons vs Lions Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 47 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 47 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Falcons vs. Lions odds have Detroit laying a field goal in NFL Week 3.
Behind their two-headed monster of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons look to improve to 3-0 against a Lions team dealing with a number of key injuries.
Let's preview the game and make our Falcons vs. Lions pick.
It isn't a secret what the Falcons game plan is — they are going to run the football and dare you to stop it.
It makes sense. Atlanta put a lot of stock into Bijan Robinson when they drafted him eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He joined a dominant backfield with sophomore Tyler Allgeier, who's fresh off a 1,000-yard season. Together, the two have combined for 300 yards through the first two weeks on over five yards per carry.
The Falcons run the football at a 56.4% rate, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Head coach Arthur Smith is set in his ways, so as long as Desmond Ridder — who does not profile as an above-average quarterback — is under center, he will continue to trust his dynamic backs behind an offensive line that ranks fourth in run blocking,per PFF.
The Falcons continue to be undervalued in the market despite their undefeated start to the season, which includes a second-half comeback against the Packers. While Ridder leaves a lot to be desired in the passing game — he has PFF’s fourth-worst grade — his dual-threat mobility helps create a hitch in the defense.
Smith wants to limit possessions and drain the clock through this ground-and-pound strategy. The Falcons are the third-slowest team in seconds per snap, and in Week 2, they strung together five separate possessions that totaled four-plus minutes.
Sunday presents a great opportunity to not only buy the Falcons, but to sell the injury riddled Lions.
Bet Atlanta vs. Detroit at FanDuel
That’s been the story of the week with Detroit. James Houston and C.J. Gardner-Johnson both suffered long-term injuries and landed on the IR, while Kerby Joseph and Emmanuel Moseley both missed practice all week and are unlikely to play.
Not only does that mean the Lions are left without two safeties, but they’re also without a backup cornerback.
Oh, and on the offensive side of the ball? David Montgomery is doubtful and two starting linemen are out. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds enter with injuries, but are expected to play.
The Lions rush defense ranks around league average — 13th in DVOA — while their pass defense is 27th. With an already thin secondary, the Falcons’ smash-mouth offensive style should prove deadly. This game is going to be physical in the trenches and the Lions can’t afford for more injuries to pile up.
I’m still a believer in the Lions offense. Jared Goff looked much more comfortable in Week 2 despite the loss. He threw three touchdowns and completed 80% of his passes, and as a whole, Detroit's offense ranks inside the top 10 in DVOA (third in passing).
With Montgomery unlikely to play, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs will see a significant boost to his workload. Atlanta ranks fourth in rush defense grade, per PFF, and is just outside the top 10 in DVOA.
We saw Jordan Love and the Packers pick apart the Falcons in the short game. That’s where players like St. Brown and Gibbs will be used most.
Cornerback Jeff Okudah is questionable and could return against his former team after logging a full week of practice. It would likely come in limited fashion, though.
But as good as the Lions offense has been, their defense ultimately held them back in Week 2. The Seahawks mounted a huge comeback with Geno Smith attacking the short game through Seattle's tight ends. Their trio of TEs combined for 132 yards on nine receptions.
Falcons vs. Lions
Betting Picks & Predictions
Despite a 2-0 start and no signs of slowing down, the Falcons continue to be undervalued in the market.
It's not the prettiest football, but their smashmouth style of play has proven efficient. Bijan Robinson finds himself in a great matchup against a banged up Lions defense that is also vulnerable in the passing game.
If Desmond Ridder can take advantage, the Falcons have a chance to run away with this. I believe Jared Goff will do enough to keep this game close despite the injuries on the offensive end. Josh Reynolds and Amon-Ra St. Brown logged full practices on Friday, and should play — but Detroit remains overvalued in the market.
The hype is real for Dan Campbell's squad, and it's showing, with the number staying around 3-3.5.
Expect the Falcons to control the pace by playing a slow, run-heavy game that limits possessions. I'm going to continue betting on the Falcons until the market catches up and I find them undervalued once again.
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