Jets vs Texans Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 14 Betting Pick
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Jets vs Texans Odds, Prediction
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 33 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 33 -110o / -110u | -175 |
The latest Jets vs. Texans odds in Week 14 have Houston as a consensus 3.5-point favorite with a game total over/under of 32.5 or 33 depending on the sportsbook. My NFL picks for this game are dependent on the potentially ugly weather forecast.
The Texans and Jets are headed in opposite directions. Houston has won four of its last five, while New York has dropped five consecutive games both straight up and against the spread. The Jets will turn the keys back over to Zach Wilson, and given that weather is supposed to be a factor on Sunday (rain and high winds), the volatility in this game is significant.
Avoiding the side and total, I will instead target a pair of props for my Jets vs. Texans predictions after digging into this game.
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Jets vs Texans Picks
The weather forecast for East Rutherford, N.J., on Sunday afternoon calls for definite rain showers, some possibly heavy, with sustained winds around 12 mph with gusts potentially as high as 20 mph.
When handicapping weather games, wind is undoubtedly the most impactful of all of the elements. The total has already dropped 5.5 points from an opening 38.5 to 33, signaling oddsmakers believe that scoring will be at a premium.
Houston’s offense is predicated on explosive pass plays, as it has created a league-high 59 chunk gains (20 or more yards) through the air this season. Pushing the ball down the field will not come easy for future NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud.
The Jets pass defense has been elite this season, allowing an NFL-low 25 completions of 20-plus yards. New York boasts the fourth-ranked pass defense according to DVOA and has a 9.1% adjusted sack rate, ranking sixth in creating havoc for opposing passers.
Making things even more difficult for the Texans offense will be the absence of rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, Pro Football Focus’ 15th-ranked receiver who will miss the remainder of the season with a fractured fibula. The injury will put much more attention on Nico Collins, who is already tasked with a difficult assignment against a defense ranked fourth in DVOA against WR1s.
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If the Texans offense is going to function at the level it has in recent weeks, Stroud is going to have to continue to use his legs to move the chains.
Houston's rush offense is 27th on a per-carry basis. Given the lack of projected success on early down rushes combined with the expected difficulty in downfield passing, the Texans are likely to face an abundance of third downs in this game.
Stroud has six carries in each of the last two games, and that running trend should continue against the Jets. Stroud is modestly lined at 9.5 rushing yards, which is simply too low when looking at how the Texans match up with the Jets defense.
New York takes away quarterback first reads better than any team in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have attempted to pass to their first read at a rate of just 55.1%, the lowest percentage in the league. This directly translates to quarterbacks pulling the ball down and using their legs.
In fact, quarterbacks have rushed for more than 10 yards in 10 of the Jets' 12 games this season. This includes Mac Jones and Tommy DeVito, who each had four carries against the Jets, and Patrick Mahomes (seven), Dak Prescott (six) and Russell Wilson (seven), who combined for 20 rushing attempts.
Jets vs. Texans
Betting Picks & Predictions
Stroud will do whatever it takes to get the win in the midst of a tight playoff race, but don’t expect offensive fireworks from Houston in a game with inclement weather.
The Texans have been held to fewer than 20 points in three of their five road games this season, with this being one of their most difficult positions yet.
These two plays are based on both the weather and the ability of the Jets to take away what the Texans want to do offensively.
Picks: Texans Team Total Under 18.5 (-112; DraftKings) | CJ Stroud Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-115; DraftKings)
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