How Patrick Mahomes’ Injury Has Changed Bengals vs. Chiefs Betting Odds, Spread, Moneyline

How Patrick Mahomes’ Injury Has Changed Bengals vs. Chiefs Betting Odds, Spread, Moneyline article feature image

Picture by Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.

  • Patrick Mahomes is expected to play for the AFC Championship Game between the Bengals and Chiefs on Sunday -- but he'll be wobbly.
  • How much does that affect betting odds, the spread and the moneyline for this pivotal contest?
  • In a perfect world, what would the Chiefs' line be with Mahomes at 100%? What about if he was out? How injured does the market think Mahomes is?

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during the divisional round but is expected to play in the AFC Championship Game vs. the Bengals.

This raises the question: How has Mahomes' ailment — whether he plays or not — affected betting odds for a heavyweight matchup between the Bengals and Chiefs?

The consensus price on the Chiefs spread as of Wednesday afternoon is at roughly +1.5.

But if Mahomes were at 100% health, that fair value line should be closer to Kansas City -2.5 — a four-point swing.

The current market price on the moneyline also bakes into its price the fact that Mahomes won't be 100%. While the current moneyline hovers at around +100, the fair market price should be -130 with a pre-ankle sprain Mahomes.

If we're to extrapolate and get granular with the numbers here, that indicates the market thinks Mahomes will be at roughly 70-75% strength relative to a week ago and is pricing accordingly.

Fair Value Lines for Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game (Moneyline)

Data courtesy of The Action Network's Travis Reed

The Chiefs are about 57% favorites to win this game with a full-strength Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium. Those are odds are about -130.

But, the current odds are at -104 at FanDuel. They're as low as +110 at SuperBook. That implies a win probability of about 48%.

Without their MVP quarterback? The line would balloon to +5.5, with the Bengals being substantial road favorites against the No. 1 seed — one of the highest lines in history for a visitor during the championship round.

As it stands, the Chiefs are +1 (-110) underdogs at FanDuel. The 70-75% Mahomes health assessment the market made with the moneyline translates over for the spread.

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