The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) and Denver Broncos (12-2) will face off in NFL Week 16. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Broncos are 3.5-point favorites on the spread (Broncos -3), with the over/under set at 47 total points. Denver is a -190 favorite to win outright, while the Jacksonville is +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 16 preview and Jaguars vs Broncos prediction for today's clash between AFC contenders.
Jaguars vs Broncos Prediction
- Jaguars vs Broncos pick: Jaguars +3.5; bet to +3 (-110)
My Jaguars vs Broncos best bet is on Jacksonville to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Jaguars vs Broncos Odds
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Jaguars vs Broncos NFL Week 16 Preview
The Broncos are No. 1 in our Luck Rankings — that's not a good thing — for a reason.
Last week, they should have lost. Bo Nix had four turnover-worthy plays and it felt like the Packers dropped more interceptions than that. On top of that, Green Bay lost key players (like Micah Parsons), the refs missed calls, and the Broncos escaped with another one-score victory in fourth quarter.
Put another lucky win on the board for Denver, which is why I’m still not buying this Broncos team.
The Broncos have won 11 straight games. Guess what happens next? Teams on such winning streaks are 14-36-2 (28%) against the spread (ATS) since 1990, an indicator that they are probably at the top of their market value.
Meanwhile, the market doesn't want to fully buy into the Jaguars, but I think this game will be separated by less than a field goal.
Since Week 8, the Jaguars defense ranks fourth in EPA per play, plus they have been a top-five run defense the entire season. That's important against Denver.
According to Evan Abrams, Jacksonville is allowing just 86.3 yards per game, the fewest mark in the NFL by 3.5 yards, and is just one of two teams this year to not allow any player to rush for 90+ yards, along with the Lions — however, the Jags haven’t even allowed a player to rush for 75+ yards.
Jacksonville will play a lot of zone on the back end, which doesn't bode particularly well for Nix.
The difference with the Jaguars now is Liam Coen's effect over the course of the season, but their success can't be solely credited to their head coach, of course; Trevor Lawrence is playing some solid ball right now.
Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has been great since joining the team. Since the Jaguars acquired him, their offense is third in drop-back success rate and sixth in drop-back EPA. Cognizant of Meyers' impact, the Jaguars signed him to a 3-year, $60 million contract extension to prevent him from hitting free agency in the offseason.
I think this Jaguars team is for real, and I expect this game to go right down to the wire.
The Broncos will probably end up winning by one or two points on some late shenanigans because that just keeps on happening, but the Jaguars are still in play for the one-seed, and I expect them to make their presence felt.
Jaguars vs Broncos Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm going with the Jaguars +3 against the Broncos this week, but I would probably wait and hope for a +3.5 if you can, even if it's an expensive one.
The spread for this game should be less than a field goal. Jacksonville is trending upward, and the Broncos' luck is going to run out.
Give me the Jags to cover.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5; bet to +3
Spread
My Broncos vs Jaguars betting prediction is on Jacksonville to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the total.
