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J.J. Watt Signing Boosts Cardinals’ Super Bowl Odds From 50-1 to 33-1

J.J. Watt Signing Boosts Cardinals’ Super Bowl Odds From 50-1 to 33-1 article feature image

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: J.J. Watt

  • J.J. Watt announced he's signing with the Arizona Cardinals, prompting immediate movement in the betting market.
  • The Cardinals' odds to win Super Bowl 56 climbed from +5000 to +3300 in the wake of the news.

J.J. Watt said he wanted to join a contender. His surprise signing with the Arizona Cardinals moved them closer to being one.

Watt announced he was joining the Cardinals on Twitter, surprising most considering they weren’t one of the top-12 options listed at PointsBet in the betting market.

source: me.

— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) March 1, 2021

The impact was felt immediately on the oddsboard.

J.J. Watt Betting Market Reaction

Odds Immediately Before Immediately After
Super Bowl +5000 +3300
Conference +2200 +1500
NFC West +700 +500

The Cardinals were +5000 to win the Super Bowl before the deal was announced, but Watt’s addition to the defense moved Arizona to +3300 at DraftKings. Odds also shortened in the conference and division odds market.

The Browns were the betting favorite to sign Watt due to their cap space, need and what’s considered to be a roster close to Super Bowl contention.

Hours before Watt tweeted his decision, a screenshot of a Peloton was making its rounds supposedly of Watt changing his bio to include Green Bay, Cleveland and Buffalo. Unfortunately for fans of those teams or bettors who took a chance at their odds, Watt doesn’t have a Peloton and the account was not his.

There were early connections to the Steelers and Packers. Watt’s brothers — T.J. and Derek — both play for Pittsburgh. Watt is from Wisconsin, which had people pointing to Green Bay.

Watt joins Chandler Jones to create a formidable pass rush, while also reuniting with former Texans teammate DeAndre Hopkins.

The deal is for two years with $23 million guaranteed.

Watt is still a high-level player, although he had just five sacks last year. Still, the market reaction may be a little overboard.

“(His impact) is not enough to justify the movement in the market,” according to our NFL betting analyst Matthew Freedman.

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