Justin Fields Player Props: Expert Pick for Bears vs Patriots
Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Fields.
Justin Fields Rush Attempts
|Prop||Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-110; playable to -130)|
|Matchup||Bears vs. Patriots|
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
My favorite NFL prop dating back to last season has been quarterback rushing attempts. Sportsbooks typically only issue these props for the more mobile quarterbacks, and for whatever reason, the lines seem to be continually set about one attempt too low.
Which brings us to Justin Fields. The much-maligned Bears quarterback has run the ball at least eight times in five of his six games this season. With his prop set at 7.5, I’m loving the over tonight.
The Ohio State product leads NFL quarterbacks in scrambles on the season with 33 despite dropping back to pass only 171 times (25th). With some simple math, we can see that Fields is breaking off a run on 19% of designed pass plays.
What this shows is that even though the Bears call the fewest amount of pass plays in the league, Fields is still garnering the bulk of his production with his scrambling ability.
While the matchup against the Patriots is likely to lead to an exceptionally slow game, I see fantastic opportunity for Fields to take off running.
Firstly, the signal-caller has scrambled on 25-of-86 dropbacks when pressured – a ridiculous 29% (per Pro Football Focus). New England has garnered pressure on opposing quarterbacks at the sixth highest rate this season.
Plus, the Patriots play man coverage at one of the highest rates. With less eyes on the quarterback on passing plays, Fields is more likely to run. Throw in some designed zone reads, sneaks and maybe even a kneel-down, and we have the makings of another run-heavy game for the second-year pro.
I have Fields projected at nine rushing attempts tonight.