Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 12 Pick

Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 12 Pick article feature image

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Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 12

Sunday, Nov. 26
4:25 p.m. ET
Chiefs Odds
-110o / -110u
Raiders Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The latest Chiefs vs Raiders odds have Kansas City installed as 9-point favorites on the spread with a game total over/under of 42.5. My NFL pick for the game is on the Raiders' team total against this thriving K.C. defense.

The Chiefs are trying to bounce back after their most disappointing loss of the season thus far as they travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes has historically been very good following a defeat, but with the offense in turmoil — the Chiefs have failed to score a single point in the second half in three straight games — we are going to put our faith in K.C.'s vastly improved defense to carry the day.

Continue reading below for my betting preview of this AFC West rivalry game, which includes a Chiefs vs Raiders prediction.

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Chiefs vs Raiders Pick, Prediction

Pick: Raiders Team Total Under 16.5

Chiefs vs. Raiders

Matchup Analysis

With regard to the Chiefs defense, the market has been slow to adjust to just how great this unit is. The past struggles of defensive play in Kansas City still loom large in the minds of bettors, but it's truly time to buy in to this Steve Spagnuolo-led juggernaut.

According to DVOA, the Chiefs have the fourth-best overall defense. Their perceived weakness is their inability to stop the run, but in reality, this is how the system is supposed to work.

The Chiefs have the best third-down defense, allowing only 2.9 yards per play on third down. There is a reason they have faced the sixth-fewest rush attempts, and it’s simply because opposing offenses are inefficient in all other areas of play against them.

Josh Jacobs and the Raiders' rushing attack has been the least explosive in the NFL. Jacobs has a 4% explosive run rate, and the Chiefs only allow 5.2% of runs to gain 10 or more yards. The Raiders on a per-game basis get only 21 yards on rushes deemed explosive.

Kansas City also plays with two-high safeties in its defensive formation at the highest rate in the league. With the ultra-conservative game plan trying to be executed by interim head coach Antonio Pierce, it is reasonable to expect the Chiefs to bring an extra defender into the box in obvious running situations.

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Chiefs -9.5 (-105)

Raiders +9.5 (-115)

Vegas will surely try to implement a ground-heavy attack, but it won’t be as easy as it might look on paper when looking at baseline metrics of Kansas City's rush defense.

The Chiefs will get the Raiders into third-down situations and when they do, they have a considerable advantage. Aiden O’Connell has a 54.6 passer rating when under pressure, and he has the daunting task of trying to move the sticks against a defense that has the third-highest adjusted sack rate, according to FTN data. Adjusted sack rate factors in batted passes and intentional grounding, along with down-and-distance situations — it's a much more reliable metric than just looking at total sacks.

Vegas' offense has turned the ball over on a league-high 18% of its possessions. As mentioned, the direction under Pierce will be to protect the ball at all costs.

O’Connell has a 4.8% turnover-worthy throw rate and the Raiders' staff will do everything they can to limit his mistakes. They have no choice but to try and move the ball methodically down the field.

This is not the type of game you will see teams quickly move up and down the field with ease — it will likely be a grind for both offenses.

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Chiefs vs. Raiders

Betting Picks & Predictions

The Chiefs defense is one the best in the league at creating havoc. The Chiefs stifled the Eagles offense on Monday to the tune of 4.4 yards per play.

Six straight games involving the Chiefs have gone under the total. With the Chiefs offense still being worked out, I am reluctant to back them at the moment. Instead, let’s attack a Raiders offense that has failed to score over 14 points in four of their last five games. The Chiefs' defense will dominate them on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Raiders Team Total Under 16.5
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