Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction & Odds | NFL Week 16 Preview

Chiefs vs. Raiders odds have Kansas City listed as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 40.5 total points. My NFL pick for this game is on a total that is far, far too low.

Kansas City should be getting a boost in the rushing department, as Isiah Pacheco (shoulder surgery) is expected to return. Josh Jacobs (quad), though, is going to miss this game, according to NFL Network. Pacheco's boost to the Chiefs offense is part of why I'm backing this over.

Let’s get into my Christmas Day betting preview and Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction.

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For all the talk about the Chiefs offense struggling, this team has gone over their posted total in three of their last four games. Kansas City has only scored more than 30 points once since Week 7, and it was against the Raiders in Week 12.

Mahomes, who leads the NFL in total yardage, only faced pressure on 29% of his attempts in that meeting and it led to him completing a season-high 79% of passing attempts. Historical trends spanning different coaching staffs hardly matter, but it is worth noting Mahomes has consistently punished the Raiders, throwing 13 touchdowns over his last four meetings in which he played a full slate of snaps.

An added reason for optimism regarding the Chiefs offense is the narrowing of playing time in the most maligned positional group in football: Kansas City's wide receivers. Rashee Rice has seen his route participation increase in each of the last four weeks, reaching a season-high 92% last week. In the Week 12 meeting, Rice was on the field for only 26 routes, yet he cleared 100 receiving yards.

Travis Kelce is also due for a bounce-back performance. Kelce had six receptions for 91 yards just a few weeks ago against Las Vegas, and it is fair to expect more of the same this week.

The Raiders are 31st in completion percentage allowed to the tight end position (78.8%). Vegas is 23rd in DVOA against tight ends, which just further illustrates its inability to stop the Chiefs' two best weapons in the passing game.

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As for the Chiefs defense, they have been trending down over the last few weeks.

The Chiefs had a -16.6% DVOA against the pass from Weeks 1-10, but from Weeks 11-15, that number has shrunk to -3.3%. For context, that is only slightly better than league average. This is a major concern for a unit that was already 30th in yards per rush allowed (4.56).

It's clear the Chiefs defense has fallen from elite status. The Raiders averaged 6.2 yards per play on offense against K.C. in Week 12.

In Weeks 13 and 14, the Chiefs surrendered more than 700 total yards to the Packers and Bills, both losses. Week 15 saw a good performance against the Patriots, but again, that should be taken with a grain of salt given the struggles of New England this season.

Weather may be playing a part in bettors' reluctance to play this total, but the forecast shows inconsistent showers and manageable winds of 10-15 mph. This shouldn’t factor into the handicap.

The Chiefs offense should also get back Isiah Pacheco this week, which is just another factor that lends itself to this game playing out similarly to their first meeting. Patrick Mahomes' passer rating remains a sparkling 108.3 this season when he isn’t faced with pressure, and the Chiefs have undoubtedly have won the battle up front against the Raiders in recent meetings.

With the Raiders' ability to move the ball on the ground combined with their inability to get pressure on Mahomes, I like the over.