- The Chicago Bears (-7) will host the Detroit Lions this weekend in a key divisional showdown (Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, FOX).
- The forecast calls for sustained winds of 13 mph and temperatures below 40 degrees.
The origin of the nickname “Windy City” for Chicago is hotly debated. Maybe not hotly, but there are four possible reasons according to Wikipedia. Though professors don’t deem it a credible source, I do.
Whatever the case may be, Chi-Town is boasting some actual windy conditions this weekend. Wind as in the weather phenomenon.
The college scene has had far more windy games this year than the NFL, but Chicago is making sure Sunday has some actionable weather conditions for bettors.
With projected winds of 13 mph, this weekend’s Lions-Bears game (1 p.m. ET, FOX) could one of the windiest NFL games of the season per our Bet Labs database.
The current windiest game was 14 mph and in Chicago, when the Jets visited the Bears in Week 8.
Historically, games with winds of 10+ mph have gone under 55.5% of the time. However, Soldier Field hasn’t followed that trend.
The Bears’ home field is one of just a handful in the league at which the under has a losing record, dating back to 2003.
In 51 total games with double-digit wind speeds, the under is just 23-28, making it the least profitable windy stadium in terms of units won.
Ironically, the “best” stadium that has more than a two-game sample size is none other than Wembley Stadium in London, at which the under is 7-1 in windy games.
FedEx Field is perhaps the best true NFL stadium with a 13-4 under record.
Given the high winds, sharps have come in on the under. Sports Insights’ Bet Signals tracked a steam move on the under at 45. Since opening, the total has dropped from 46.5/47 down to 44. It’s since ticked up to 44.5.
One final trend to note is that divisional games go under the total more often than non-division games.
Regardless of the weather, divisional matchups have gone under 52.9% of the time. In windy games, unders improve to 59.4%.