Best Vikings-Seahawks MNF Player Props: Kirk Cousins Over/Under 299.5 Passing Yards?

Best Vikings-Seahawks MNF Player Props: Kirk Cousins Over/Under 299.5 Passing Yards? article feature image
  • There are two player props on Monday Night Football that have value according to our metrics.
  • Will Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins go over 299.5 yards passing against the Seahawks?

There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Vikings-Seahawks matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props.

So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.

*All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Monday

Seahawks RB Chris Carson

The pick: Under 12.5 receiving yards (-120)

Betting these short-yardage props can be hit or miss because it just takes one long catch to exceed the prop, but there are a few reasons for optimism on this one.

For starters, Carson dislocated his finger in Week 13, which could give the Seahawks one less reason to throw to him, and he already has a minimal pass-catching role within the offense.

Carson is seeing just 6.5% of Seattle’s market share of targets this season, and he’s averaging just 7.76 pass routes per game, per Pro Football Focus. Overall, quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t heavily targeted any of his running backs: Mike Davis leads the backfield with just 2.6 targets per game. Carson’s  5.6% target rate (targets/snap) ranks 12th on the team.

This prop will be a close sweat, as he’s projected for 11.4 receiving yards.

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

The pick: Under 299.5 passing yards (-115)

Cousins has been up and down this season with his passing yardage totals. He has five games with more than 300 yards passing and another five with fewer than 245 yards.

The Seahawks can be exploited through the air, but Cousins could fall into trouble if his offensive line struggles to protect him. Per PFF, this season he’s been pressured on 39.6% of his dropbacks, the eighth-highest mark among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks.

Additionally, this game has a total of just 46.0 points, and Cousins has averaged only 6.15 yards per attempt and 255.2 passing yards per game in the five games with a total of 46 or less this year.

Cousins presently has a projection of 280 passing yards in the FantasyLabs props tool.

 

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