The New England Patriots (4-2) and Tennessee Titans (1-5) will face off in Week 7 of the NFL season. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. EDT from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Patriots are favored by -7 on the spread over the Titans (Patriots -7), with the over/under set at 42.5 points. The Patriots are priced at -340 on the moneyline and the Titans are +265.
Let's get into my Week 7 Patriots vs Titans predictions for Sunday afternoon.
Patriots vs Titans Prediction
- Patriots vs Titans pick: Over 42.5 (Bet to -120)
My Patriots vs Titans best bet is the game total to go over 42.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Titans Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -340 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
Patriots vs Titans Week 7 Preview
New England Patriots Betting Preview: Maye I Have This Dance?
After another excellent showing last week on the road in New Orleans, oddsmakers currently have Drake Maye listed as the fourth favorite at +1200 to win league MVP.
If the vote took place prior to Week 7, Maye would likely finish as the runner-up next to Baker Mayfield, and part of the longer number comes down to hesitation from the market that he can keep pace with more proven QBs such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Mayfield.
Entering this matchup, Maye is on pace to be only the third QB in NFL history with a rating of 105.0 or better and an average of 250 passing yards per game. He's led the Patriots to an AFC East-leading 4-2-0 record (holding the tiebreaker over the Bills), which is another key argument for his MVP case early on.
Maye ranks second in the league with a 73.2% completion rate and ranks fourth in averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. The Patriots rank ninth in offensive EPA per play despite ranking last in rushing by EPA and DVOA.
They hold the fifth-highest explosive play rate in the NFL, which could be noteworthy in a matchup versus a Titans pass defense that ranks second worst in the league against deep passes by DVOA.
Most observers have been surprised by TreVeyon Henderson's usage this season after the team selected him 38th overall in the 2025 draft. Rhamondre Stevenson was ineffective once again last week versus the Saints, recording just 18 yards on 13 carries, and this could be an interesting spot to bet into the upside of a potential Henderson against a Titans run defense that ranks 27th by DVOA.
The Patriots rank 21st in defensive rating this season and have allowed 322.5 yards against per game. They have allowed explosive plays at the NFL's highest rate, a flaw that has been partially covered by eight fumble recoveries and four interceptions.
The Pats are middle of the pack in QB pressure rate, which is a key area in which teams have had success against Cam Ward this season.
Tennessee Titans Betting Preview: Beginning of a New Era
Prior to this matchup, the Titans' front office finally pulled the trigger on a move that started to feel inevitable, relieving head coach Brian Callahan of his duties. Callahan coached to a historically bad record of 4-18-1 against the spread (ATS) and 4-19 straight up (SU).
Senior offensive assistant Mike McCoy was promoted to the position of interim head coach. McCoy has plenty of NFL experience working as either the QB coach or offensive coordinator for the Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos, and Cardinals, as well as head coach of the Chargers from 2013 to 2016, coaching to a record of 27-37.
The main priority for McCoy will be to help first overall pick Cam Ward develop effectively at the NFL level. Out of all of McCoy's experiences working with NFL quarterbacks, the most comparable situation is certainly his time in Jacksonville working with Trevor Lawrence, who was also selected first overall.
Ward has been sacked a league-high 25 times this season and holds a completion rate of just 55%. The Titans offense has been slightly less abysmal over the last two weeks, ranking 30th in EPA/play, compared to last by a margin over the previous two outings.
Much of McCoy's focus will likely lie in attempting to help Ward get through his progressions faster and make safer decisions under pressure, two areas in which the highly touted rookie has struggled.
As noted, McCoy will likely be more hands on with Ward and the offense, but there is still room to grow defensively for the Titans, who rank 27th in EPA per play this season and 23rd in points allowed per drive.
The Titans defense could be without several key pieces in this matchup. Linebacker Arden Key will remain sidelined for a second straight week, while Dre'Mont Jones is listed as questionable after missing Thursday and Friday's practices. Tennessee may also be thin at the corner, as Marcus Harris is questionable, while it's unclear whether T'Vondre Sweat will be activated off the IL.
Per Evan Abrams, no interim coach has won outright as a home underdog of +7 or higher since the Chiefs in 2011. Since 2000, underdogs of 4 or more at home off an in-season coaching change are 1-6 straight up and 3-4 ATS (Evan Abrams). Teams hold a 49% record ATS off midseason firings since 2000.
Patriots vs Titans Prediction, Betting Analysis
While the Titans' upside would always have been limited under any head coach over the last two years, the majority of sharper analysts have been unanimous in critiquing the majority of Callahan's work.
The historic results show teams haven't necessarily progressed that significantly after in-season coaching changes, but this instance could be a little different, given how greatly the Titans underachieved under Callahan, even relative to how low the bar was set during two clear rebuilding campaigns.
If the Titans are to take steps forward, they may come most notably on the offensive side of the ball, where McCoy will attempt to play more to Ward's strengths and help limit the amount of backbreaking mistakes.
The Patriots haven't been dominant defensively, and we could see a respectable offensive output from Tennessee in this matchup.
Maye and the Patriots have been in tremendous form recently, and their dominant passing attack could prove particularly effective in this matchup versus an injury-plagued Titans defense.
At -110, I see value in backing this game to feature over 42.5 total points and would bet it down to -120.
Pick: Over 42.5 (bet to -120)
Spread
The current spread of seven seems fair for this matchup, where you can make a solid case for both sides.
Moneyline
If I were forced to bet a side in this matchup, I would back the Titans to pull off the upset at +270, attempting to tap into the volatility of a potential resurgence under McCoy after firing a head coach who clearly was not overly sharp.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I plan on taking the over here.
