Saints vs Browns Odds, Pick: Bet Over/Under in Brutal Conditions

Saints vs Browns Odds, Pick: Bet Over/Under in Brutal Conditions article feature image

Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.

  • The Browns are three-point favorites over the Saints.
  • The game total is a season-low 32 because of wind and cold weather.
  • Landon Silinsky breaks down the matchup and lays out how he's betting the game below.

Saints vs. Browns Odds

Saturday, Dec. 24
1 p.m. ET
Saints Odds
-110o / -110u
Browns Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

This is going to be an ugly one, but we can still find a Saints vs Browns pick.

The total for this game sits at a paltry 32.5 points, which is the lowest on the entire slate this week, clear of the next lowest total by three points.

But will our Saints vs Browns pick be on this historically low total?

It's early in Deshaun Watson's tenure with the Browns, but he clearly looks like a guy who has not played in two years. Through three games, he's thrown for under 200 yards twice, while the Browns have scored just 29 offensive points and two offensive touchdowns. Yikes.

It's not like the Saints have been lighting it up either, as they're coming off an embarrassing shutout in San Francisco three weeks ago, before scoring 16 points in another loss a week later at Tampa. They got back on track in Week 15 against the Falcons in rookie Desmond Ridder's first start.

Despite being 5-9 on the season, the Saints are in the thick of a division race, sitting just one game back of the first-place Bucs.

Saints vs. Browns Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Saints and Browns match up statistically:

Saints vs. Browns DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA2326
Pass DVOA2016
Rush DVOA2330
Overall DVOA1014
Pass DVOA1112
Rush DVOA823

The Saints are dealing with some injury issues as Chris Olave has missed back-to-back practices with a hamstring issue; Jarvis Landry was added to the injury report on Wednesday and did not practice due to an ankle problem.

If both receivers miss this week, the Saints will be left with a three-receiver set of Rashid Shaheed, Tre'Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway. This would obviously be a big blow to New Orleans, a team that already ranks 21st in pass offense DVOA and 22nd in points per game.

Bet New Orleans vs. Cleveland at FanDuel

The Browns are also dealing with an injury of their own, as running back Nick Chubb has yet to practice this week due to a foot injury. With the Browns passing game looking lifeless of late, Chubb being even slightly limited would be a major problem for Cleveland.

The biggest mismatch in this game is the Saints' rushing attack against the Browns' porous run defense, which ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA and 29th in yards per carry allowed. The Browns just gave up 125 yards on 13 carries to J.K. Dobbins.

If both Olave and Landry miss, however, Cleveland would be able to key in on Alvin Kamara. The Saints finally gave their star running back a regular workload last week against the Falcons, as he got 20-plus touches for the first time since Week 5.

Betting Picks

With the way the Browns offense has been playing, it's incredibly hard to lay points with them, even at home. Until Watson shakes off the rust, this team is going to struggle to score.

With the injuries to the Saints' WR corps, I expect them to have trouble moving the ball through the air in this spot, especially on the road, with the temperature expected to reach nine degrees below zero. Both of these teams will lean on their respective running games, with the Saints mixing in quite a bit of Taysom Hill.

With a ton of rushing attempts comes plenty of clock-killing drives and few stoppages. Combine that with the fact that both of these teams are having trouble putting the ball in the end zone, we could get quite a few stalled drives here and plenty of field goals.

Sportsbooks are virtually begging you to bet the over with the total sitting at 32.5 points, but this very much has the feel of a 17-14 type of contest.

The total stands at 32.5 only at FanDuel, as of 8:40 a.m. ET on Saturday. Use our live odds page to get the best number.

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