Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorer props for NFL Week 5 on Sunday, October 5.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of NFL Week 5.
NFL Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Dolphins vs Panthers |
| Cowboys vs Jets |
| Raiders vs Colts |
| Broncos vs Eagles |
| Giants vs Saints |
| Texans vs Ravens |
| Titans vs Cardinals |
| Buccaneers vs Seahawks |
| Lions vs Bengals |
| Commanders vs Chargers |
Dolphins vs. Panthers
How can we not take Panthers QB Bryce Young in this spot?
The Dolphins defense can't help itself right now when it comes to stopping quarterbacks from scoring on them. The Fins have allowed four rushing TDs in four games, with the only QB not scoring on them is Josh Allen (go figure).
I’m not going to pretend that Young is on the level of Justin Fields or Daniel Jones when it comes to scrambling, but at +600, I’m going to bet on this QB scoring angle every week.
Young scored in Week 2 and had six rushing TDs last season.
If you are looking for a “safer” pick, take RB Chuba Hubbard (+125) — but don’t be shocked if he gets vulture by Young or even RB2 Rico Dowdle (+310).
I know what you’re thinking, “Darren Waller crushed in his debut, let’s take him again!”
While I wouldn’t strongly disagree with that sentiment — since the Panthers haven't stopped tight ends since the start of the 2024 season — the price tag for Waller is pathetic at +250. I'm not saying he won’t score again, but even after scoring twice, I had fair value on Waller’s TD odds at +325.
Instead, I think we go back to RB2 Ollie Gordon at +325 since he has as many red-zone carries as De'Von Achane (six), and while he didn’t score in Week 2, he’s gotten majority of attempts inside the 10-yard and five-yard line through four games.
Cowboys vs. Jets
While this game has a total of 47.5, the TD odds are priced near the top like we’re going to see 60+ points.
With six guys at the top priced at +200 or lower, it means you have to swallow some juice or look down the oddsboard for another edge.
The first two players that draw my attention are Mason Taylor and Ryan Flournoy.
Taylor has seen a huge bump in production in this offense, and may as well be TE1 for the Jets after playing 80% of snaps and seven targets in Week 4. If the Jets get into the red zone and QB Justin Fields actually looks to throw, I expect Taylor to get into consideration if the Cowboys sell out to stop Garrett Wilson.
Flournoy is a bit of a dart throw, but I mainly wanted to attack the Cowboys' WR TD angle because the Cowboys play 11-personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3WR) at a top-five rate, and with Lamb and Kavontae Turpin out, Flournoy will see a huge boost in snaps and targets.
The Cowboys have made a clear effort to target WR1 George Pickens and TE1 Jake Ferguson, but with Jalen Tolbert's TD odds steamed to +250, I’d rather swing on Flournoy to get more involved and catch the Jets off guard.
Raiders' speedster Tre Tucker is someone I’ve relied on heavily for TD props in 2025, and he’s rewarded us with scores in two of four games this year. The upside with Tucker to score is apparent; he’s getting red-zone carries and he’s also seen three end-zone targets.
At +275, we’re in the sweet spot for Mother Tucker, who’s playing over 90% of snaps and may need to step up if TE Brock Bowers is still limited by his knee injury.
The Colts have allowed eight passing TDs (bottom-five in NFL) and allowed both Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to score on them in Week 4.
If QB Geno Smith can keep the turnovers in check, I think he can get a couple of passing TDs against a Colts secondary that will be missing CB Kenny Moore again in Week 5.
I usually like to stick to only picking Anytime TDs props because I can typically find the biggest edges, but for the Colts this week, the biggest edge I’m showing is for a HUGE Jonathan Taylor game.
I’m going to take Taylor to score two touchdowns at +275.
I know we have the possibility of being vultured by QB Daniel Jones (or Tyler Warren), but I expected odds on this prop around +190.
Taylor is tied for the most carries inside the 5-yard line in the NFL, and after being held out of end zone in Week 4, I project he gets 20+ carries in this matchup, with upside for a three-TD game.
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Broncos vs. Eagles
I’m going to be up front: I hate this game for touchdowns.
Both defenses have very strong factors about them to dictate pace, while the offenses have upside, but very clear flaws they’re working on.
Plus, my guy Nick Giffen is on the under at 43.5, which makes me even more certain that this game could be a slog on offense.
That said, if I had to take a Bronco or an Eagle, I’d look to Marvin Mims Jr. for Denver and Dallas Goedert for Philadelphia.
Mims has scored in two of four games; while the Eagles' pass defense has been solid, they’ve allowed a 50+ yard TD in each of the last three games.
Mims has shown he can score in a variety of ways (rushing TD in Week 4), while also being the kick-returner. Since he leads the team in end-zone targets and aDOT, let’s fire on him again this week.
The only reason why I’m going with Goedert is I think the Eagles' offensive line could struggle to contain the Broncos' pass-rush, but also because I expect WR A.J. Brown to be shadowed by CB Patrick Surtain for a majority of the game.
Goedert has scored two touchdowns against man defense this season; the Broncos play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Full disclaimer: I’m also betting on “No Touchdown” at 100-1 for a sprinkle since I think this game could ultimately be decided by field position and field goals.
Both teams rank top five in explosive play rate allowed against both the run and the pass. And now, they face each other.
I still like Goedert and Mims, but there’s a reason their TD odds are listed at +375 or higher even though they both scored last week.
It’s very possible we might see a 12-9 final score.
The main angle I’m taking with the Giants is QB Jaxson Dart is going to need to throw.
He may still scramble, but after the running show he put on against the Chargers, I expect the Saints to put a stop to it and make Dart a thrower. And if that plays out, I think we take both TE Theo Johnson and WR Darius Slayton.
I can likely make an easier case for Johnson — he’s the full-time TE1 and caught his second TD of his career in Week 4. He’s also run the third-most routes on the team against Cover 3 defense, which the Saints play at a top-three rate.
The only issue with Slayton is I’m not sure the Giants remember he’s playing from week to week. He plays over 90% of snaps and has the highest route participation on the team, but he’s seemingly just a cardio king. He’s rarely targeted.
At some point, the Giants have to start looking downfield — the Saints rank bottom five in defensive DVOA against the deep ball.
Let’s take the Giants WR that leads the team in aDOT to catch a long TD.
The Giants' pass defense has played the most man coverage of any NFL through four games and that might not be the best strategy when facing the Saints receivers.
The G-Men have allowed four of five passing touchdowns to wide receivers so I want to target WR Chris Olave again in this spot. He’s the only Saints WR to see at least one end-zone target in each game this season (five total) and he is fifth in the NFL in total targets (42).
With Spencer Rattler at quarterback and TE Juwan Johnson potentially limited in this one, Olave might be the only Saint we can trust.
Verdict: Chris Olave +210 | Theo Johnson +410 | Darius Slayton +425
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Texans vs. Ravens
What a brutal game for touchdowns.
The Ravens' offense is a bit of a mess with Cooper Rush, and as a Cowboys fan, I can confirm Baltimore’s upside on offense will be quite low.
That’s why I’m just going to take a long shot on TE2 Isaiah Likely at +600.
Do I still like TE1 Mark Andrews at +350? Sure, but Andrews' snaps, targets and routes will take a hit with Likely back, and the Ravens will likely lean more on the run with Rush under center.
If you want to bet on Andrews or Rashod Bateman to score, I’d be OK with it given the odds, but since we’re dealing with uncertainty with the Ravens, I’d rather take the big end-zone target for Rush with higher odds than bank on the status quo.
Now, just when you thought it was brutal for Baltimore, the Texans might be even more pitiful.
The Texans seem to be riding the hot hand when it comes to running backs; RB2 Woody Marks scored twice and looked way more explosive than RB1 Nick Chubb last week.
Still, I think this is the week where we target TE Dalton Schultz because the Ravens defense is battered.
The key reason I like Schultz is he’s easily playing the most snaps and running the most routes among the Texans' TEs, but Ravens MLB Roquan Smith is also out — he’s one of their top defenders in coverage over the middle.
Smith, along with both starting cornerbacks in Marlon Humphrey and Chidobe Awuzie are out for Week 5 as well.
If you want to take WR Nico Collins (+130) on your TD parlay, that’s fine, but I think Schultz has the best value as a single bet.
Verdict: Dalton Schultz +350 | Isaiah Likely +600
Titans vs. Cardinals
I initially wanted to take Titans WR Calvin Ridley in this spot, but he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Even if he does play, his role seems to be diminished with the emergence of rookie WR Elic Ayomanor.
The rookie leads the Titans in targets, receiving yards and touchdowns through four games, with a TD grab in two of four.
It’s not often you can get a WR at this kind of price with his track record, and it’s not like the Cardinals' pass defense is scaring anyone. Arizona has allowed the second-most passing yards and passing first downs.
I’m not expecting the Titans to put up 30+ points, but I think they will find some success throwing the ball.
At this stage, I’m too frustrated to bet on Cardinals TD scorers; I’m likely passing on them this week.
The TD odds are so steamed near the top because of how atrocious the Titans defense has been this season that even Kyler Murray, who hasn’t scored yet this season, is +200 or less.
Backup RB Trey Benson is out, and now Michael Carter is the RB1 for Arizona.
I think there’s only really one option, and that's RB Emari Demercado, especially if Cardinals RBs are dropping like flies.
He scored last week and he will likely see an increased role if Carter struggles, or if the Titans can actually make this a game.
Verdict: Elic Ayomanor +450 | Passing on Cardinals
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
The Buccaneers are dealing with injury issues to some of their top players, but one returned last week in WR Chris Godwin.
The slot receiver saw 10 targets in Week 4, and while he only caught three of them, some of that can be chalked up to rust.
If QB Baker Mayfield is throwing the ball this well, I want to stick with the Bucs' passing game — Godwin could be in line for some heavy usage.
The Seahawks play zone at top-10 rate with a lot of Cover 2 and Cover 3. Godwin had a much higher target rate last season against those types of defenses compared to man coverage, which the Seahawks play at a bottom-seven rate.
Seattle has yet to allow a rushing TD this season; Bucs RB1 Bucky Irving is out for this one along with WR Mike Evans.
If you want to take WR Emeka Egbuka (+180), I’d be into it, since he’s been electric through his first four games, but with all six receiving TDs allowed by the Seahawks at 17 yards or fewer, I want the receiver with the historically lower aDOT, and that’s Godwin.
I just can’t quit Cooper Kupp. I know he hasn’t scored this season, and the emergence of rookie WR Tory Horton has minimized his role, but I think this could be the week where the Seahawks need Kupp.
The Bucs secondary plays a lot of Cover 3, and Kupp is running the same amount of routes as WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba against zone coverage while also playing the most snaps of any Seahawks WR.
I love JSN, but this 33% target share just isn’t sustainable. If Kupp and Sam Darnold get on the same page, Kupp should break out.
Verdict: Chris Godwin +250 | Cooper Kupp +300
Lions vs. Bengals
You may want to bet on Bengals because the odds are too good to ignore, but when Jake Browning is the QB, you’re going to have to have some excessive sweats.
Browning had back-to-back matchups against the Broncos and Vikings where he couldn’t get anything going and didn’t have a completed pass longer than 25 yards. In an offense featuring Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, that’s hard to do.
It could be another disaster this week as the red-hot Lions come to town, and like the Broncos and Vikings, Detroit blitzes at a 30% clip or higher.
Until we see Chase at +200 or higher or Higgins at +300 or higher, I’m passing on the Bengals WRs.
For the Lions, I’m looking right at TE Sam LaPorta at +210.
The Bengals tend to play a lot of man coverage while also heavily utilizing Cover 3 (top-10 rate) and Cover 6 (top-3 rate). LaPorta ranks second among Lions pass catchers in targets per route run and has done well against Cover 6 over the course of his career.
With WR Amon-Ra St. Brown getting so much attention, and the Lions' effective run game, I expect LaPorta to be in line for his first TD of the season.
Verdict: Sam LaPorta +210 | Pass on Bengals
Commanders vs. Chargers
The tight end position on the Chargers has typically been an afterthought (or in flux), but rookie TE Oronde Gadsden might be in line for more work against the Commanders.
Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin have been dealing with injuries over the last couple of weeks, but it’s Gadsden who’s been getting the targets with 12 in the last two games, including one in the end zone.
At +400, I’m willing to take the risk that Gadsden gets his first TD of his career.
For the Commanders, we’ve got a tricky situationbecause Terry McLaurin is out and Deebo Samuel is nursing an injury (but says he’ll play).
The one consistent pass-catcher for Jayden Daniels who remains is TE Zach Ertz. He’s got two TDs this season (both with Daniels at QB), and has typically seen his target rate go up when facing zone defense, which the Chargers play at a top-seven rate.
I could also get behind a Daniels TD at +250 or better, but remember, this is his first game back from injury and will be wearing a knee brace on his left leg. Be cautious.
Verdict: Zach Ertz +240 | Oronde Gadsden +400
