Freedman: 3 Profitable NFL Trends Worth Betting in Week 6
Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12).
- Using Bet Labs, Matthew Freedman shares three profitable against-the-spread systems for Week 6, including Giants-Patriots on Thursday Night Football.
Although I am not a “trends bettor,” I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Using the Bet Labs database, I have uncovered three NFL trends that catch my eye for Week 6.
Odds as of Monday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
1. Patriots -17 vs. Giants
In the history of the Bet Labs database (since 2003), the Patriots are 156-97-8 against the spread in the regular season, good an A-graded 21.0% return on investment.
They are even better when playing outside of the division with a 100-58-4 ATS record (24.4% ROI). They present a significant challenge to teams that are unfamiliar with them.
Against teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season, they are 109-58-5 ATS (27.5% ROI). Under head coach Bill Belichick, the Pats are the type of team that historically has outperformed expectations against poor teams.
And what about when they have played non-divisional non-playoff teams? They have a 61-25-1 ATS record (39.1% ROI).
2. Vikings -3 vs. Eagles
Under head coach Mike Zimmer (since 2014), the Vikings have had all sorts of ATS edges.
They have been a profitable regular-season team to back:
- At home: 29-12-1, 36.6% ROI
- As favorites: 32-15-1, 31.8% ROI
- Outside of division: 39-13-1, 45.1% ROI
These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings are.
Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-adverse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings are a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.
They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.
As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 18-2-1 ATS (71.9% ROI).
3. Packers -4.5 vs. Lions
Aaron Rodgers has notable home/away ATS splits.
- Home: 50-28-3, 24.7% ROI
- Away: 42-39-1, 1.9% ROI
In the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers are the only team in the league that is top-five in home/away scoring differential for both offense and defense, as they have averaged 3.7 more points per game at home than on the road and held opponents to a league-best 4.9 fewer points in Green Bay.
As a result, they have an NFL-high 8.5-point overall home/away scoring differential. At Lambeau Field, they truly have a home-field advantage.
Rodgers also has significant divisional splits.
- In division: 38-23-0, 21.8% ROI
- Outside of division: 54-44-4, 8.1% ROI
Against teams he knows well, Rodgers has historically had an extra edge.
When these two splits are combined and Rodgers is a divisional home favorite, the Packers are 20-10 ATS (30.1% ROI).
To see the bets I’m making for Week 6, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my card into the weekend.