Freedman: 3 Profitable NFL Trends Worth Betting in Week 6


Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12).

Oct 07, 2019, 05:50 PM EDT
  • Using Bet Labs, Matthew Freedman shares three profitable against-the-spread systems for Week 6, including Giants-Patriots on Thursday Night Football.

Although I am not a “trends bettor,” I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.

Using the Bet Labs database, I have uncovered three NFL trends that catch my eye for Week 6.

Odds as of Monday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

1. Patriots -17 vs. Giants

In the history of the Bet Labs database (since 2003), the Patriots are 156-97-8 against the spread in the regular season, good an A-graded 21.0% return on investment.

They are even better when playing outside of the division with a 100-58-4 ATS record (24.4% ROI). They present a significant challenge to teams that are unfamiliar with them.

Against teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season, they are 109-58-5 ATS (27.5% ROI). Under head coach Bill Belichick, the Pats are the type of team that historically has outperformed expectations against poor teams.

And what about when they have played non-divisional non-playoff teams? They have a 61-25-1 ATS record (39.1% ROI).

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