Let me start by saying that a lot goes into handicapping sports, especially the NFL — traditional stats, advanced stats, weather, matchups and so on.
Another box to check, in addition to the ones above, is the game officials and the historical data they bring to the table.
NFL Conference Championship Referees
Let’s take a look at the head officials assigned for the NFL Conference Championship and some numbers to consider heading into the weekend of playoff action.
- Alex Kemp for Patriots at Broncos
- Clay Martin for Rams at Seahawks
AFC & NFC Championship Games
  |   |
Sunday, Jan. 25
3:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Alex Kemp
- With Alex Kemp as a referee, side/field judge or main official, the Broncos are 5-0 straight up (SU) at home. Denver is 2-3 SU on the road in this spot with Kemp.
- When Kemp is the main official, Denver is 4-0 SU at home, winning by 10 PPG (3-0 SU with Sean Payton). The Broncos are also 6-1 ATS with Kemp as main official, the best mark for any team under Kemp.
- With Kemp as a referee, side/field judge or main official, the Patriots are 9-4 SU.
- Kemp has been the main official for two Patriots road games with Mike Vrabel this year. The Patriots are 2-0 SU and the over is 2-0 with Patriots scoring 70 total points in both games combined.
- When Kemp is the main official, Vrabel-coached teams are 5-2 SU/ATS and 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite. In those seven games with Vrabel, the over is 6-1.
- When Kemp is the main official, Drake Maye is 3-0 ATS, covering the spread by 9 PPG.
- When Kemp is the main official, Sean Payton-coached teams are 5-1 SU and 3-0 SU over the last three seasons, all with the Broncos.
- Since 2018, favorites are 97-34 SU with Kemp as the main official. A $100 bettor would be up $1,084, the best of 27 main officials in that span. Over the last two seasons, favorites are 30-3 SU with Alex Kemp as the main official, the best mark of any official. Those favorites are winning by 12.3 PPG.
- Over the last two seasons, favorites are 25-8 ATS with Kemp as the main official.
- Kemp has been the main official in five playoff games. Favorites and home teams are 4-1 SU in those games and unders are 4-1, going under the total by 3.1 PPG.
- Kemp has been the main official in one Payton playoff game — Bears at Saints in 2020-21, a game the Saints won 21-9 at home in New Orleans.
- This season, the under is 11-5 in all games with Kemp as the main official, going under the total by 6.4 PPG. Kemp’s 11-5 mark to the under is the best of any official this season.
- Kemp has called eight roughing the passer (RTP) penalties this year, tied for 3rd-most of any official and his 120 yards on RTP penalties is the 3rd-most.
- Kemp has called 53 offensive holding penalties, 44 of which were not dismissed. Of those 44 penalties, 27 were on the home team, tied for the 3rd-most of any official.
- Kemp called 14 delay of game penalties this year, which is tied for the 2nd-most of any official with nine of those 14 delay of game penalties on the home team, tied for the most of any official.
- Kemp called just two illegal contact penalties this season, tied for the fewest of any official in the NFL — Vinovich, the official in the NFC Championship game only called three such penalties.
Premium picks, tools & analysis
Track & follow smart money
Biggest player prop edges
Real-time expert pick alerts
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Sunday, Jan. 25
6:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Clay Martin
- Clay Martin has been a referee, side/field judge or main official for one Seahawks-Rams game: Nov. 3, 2024 — where he was the main official.
- Rams and Stafford won 26-20 in Seattle vs. Mike Macdonald and Geno Smith. There were 20 total penalties called in that game: 12 on Seattle; eight on the Rams.
- Martin has been the head official for two Seahawks home games, the under cashed in both games.
- Here is Martin’s history with both franchises:
+ 2-2 SU SEA at home, 3-3 SU on road
+ 3-0 SU LAR at home, 6-0 SU LAR road games since they moved from STL (6-1 SU overall).
- Martin has been the main official for one Seahawks game this season: Week 6 at Jaguars, a 20-12 win for Seattle. His crew called 17 total penalties, 10 on the Jaguars and seven on the Seahawks.
- As the head official, Martin has been the referee for seven Rams games with Sean McVay as the head coach. The Rams are 7-0 SU in those games, winning by 11.9 PPG.
- With Stafford at QB, McVay is 8-1 SU with Martin as the head official, including 4-0 SU on the road.
- The underdog has had an edge with Martin as the head official. Over the last five seasons, the 'dog on the moneyline has been profitable:
2025: 8-8 SU, +$546
2024: 8-9 SU, +$595
2023: 7-9 SU, +$153
2022: 7-10 SU, +$132
2021: 6-11 SU, +$532
================
2021-25: 36-47, +$1,958 (best of 21 officials)
- Since 2018, underdogs are 76-49-1 ATS with Martin has the head official, the best mark of 27 officials in that span.
- This will be Martin’s sixth playoff game as a head official. The favorite is 4-1 SU in those games (1-4 ATS), the home team is 5-0 SU. Those five home teams are winning by 15 PPG.
- Martin has called 48 offensive holding penalties this season (not including dismissed calls) — that is tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL. Last year, Martin called 63 offensive hold calls, most in the NFL.
- Martin only called 29 false start penalties this year, 2nd-fewest in the NFL. Martin was in the bottom half of the league in false start calls last year.
- Martin called 14 total defensive pass interference calls this year, 11 on the road team and just three on the home team. Those three calls on the home team were the fewest in the NFL.
- Martin called 25 defensive holding calls this season — including accepted and dismissed calls — the most in the NFL, and his nine accepted defensive holding calls against the road team were also most in the league.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
