Koerner’s Packers vs. 49ers Live Betting Strategy

Credit:

Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel

Jan 19, 2020, 05:25 PM EST
  • Sean Koerner, our director of predictive analytics, uses his NFL Power Ratings to project a spread and over/under for the NFC Championship Game.
  • Find his lines for the Packers vs. 49ers as well as how he plans to bet the in-game total on Sunday evening.

Like I’ve done throughout the season, I’ve used my NFL power ratings to project spreads and over/unders for the conference championships, identifying the best way to bet both games.

Now let’s dig into my analysis and picks.


Odds as of noon ET on Thursday and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Titans at Chiefs

Current odds: Chiefs -7.5; 52.5
My Projections: Chiefs -7.5; 50.5

There are a few different ways to look at this game.

First, the Titans’ offensive game plan over the past three games has been to feed Derrick Henry 30-plus times; he’s rushed for 180 or more yards in each. And while the Chiefs defense has been very strong against the pass — Steve Spagnuolo’s unit ranked sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass — their 29th-ranking in DVOA against the run means they’re very much a run funnel defense.

That should be (country) music to the Tennessee’s ears. It sets up perfectly for the Titans when the game is close, as they can continue to feed Henry at will.

On the other hand, the Chiefs offense is starting to heat up at the right time.

After falling behind 24-0 to the Texans last week, the Chiefs put on a fireworks display by scoring a touchdown on seven straight drives. They actually scored so many touchdowns that Arrowhead Stadium ran out of fireworks!

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