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NFL Touchdown Parlay Week 1: Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Rico Dowdle

NFL Touchdown Parlay Week 1: Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Rico Dowdle article feature image
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Brad Rempel-Imagn Images. Pictured: Justin Jefferson.

Back by popular demand, The Action Network Touchdown Show is back for another season.

Our NFL touchdown experts — Sean Koerner, Gilles Gallant and Grant Neiffer — meet up each week to go over every game and talk about everyone's favorite prop: anytime touchdowns.

At the end of each show, each member of our touchdown trio selects their best TD bet of the slate and puts them together for a three-leg parlay. Continue below to find their NFL Touchdown parlay for Week 1.

NFL Touchdown Parlay — Week 1

Parlay Odds: +1853 (DraftKings)

Odds subject to change*


Falcons vs Steelers TD Pick: Rico Dowdle

Falcons Logo
Sunday, Sept. 13
4:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Steelers Logo
Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)
draftkings Logo

By Sean Koerner

I love Rico Dowdle at this price of +120.

Obviously, I expect Jalen Warren to mix in a quite a bit, but maybe in more of the Kenneth Gainwell Jr. passing role that's now vacant with Gainwell departing for the Buccaneers.

Dowdle is the early down back, possibly in the Najee Harris old-school role in this offense.

This this is a new scheme under head coach Mike McCarthy, but Dowdle played for McCarthy in Dallas so he's recruited his former guy here.

I think Dowdle will be the guy when the Steelers get near the goal line. He's been an excellent goal line back the past few seasons and he actually ranks second in my vulture ratings (behind Kyren Williams), which are essentially the odds of an RB scoring in their next goal line touch.

The Falcons enter this game with an undesirable quarterback situation with Cooper Rush getting the nod over the injured Tua Tagovailoa. The Steelers should be able to control this game and potentially get in a favorable game script that leads to plenty of touches for Dowdle.



Bills vs Texans TD Pick: DJ Moore

Bills Logo
Sunday, Sept. 13
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Texans Logo
DJ Moore Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+265)
draftkings Logo

By Grant Neiffer

I'm going DJ Moore at +265.

Moore is probably the best wide receiver Allen has had since Stefon Diggs. Moore was great over in Chicago, he was great over in Carolina, he's incredible in space, he's incredible going up and getting the ball.

He's been solid in the touchdown department since 2022 despite dealing with a hodgepodge of quarterbacks. He's potentially not limited to the passing game either, with 29 rush attempts the last two seasons in Chicago.

I'd guess he plays anywhere from 80-90% of snaps, although who knows with if the Bills under Joe Brady are going to keep rotating guys as much as they did last season.

Moore is the de facto No. 1 guy in this offense, with Kincaid probably being No. 2. Getting this price for a guy who might end up with 10 plus touchdowns this year seems a little bit off, even in a very tough matchup.

Packers vs Vikings TD Pick: Justin Jefferson

Packers Logo
Sunday, Sept. 13
4:25 p.m. ET
CBS
Vikings Logo
Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180)
draftkings Logo

By Gilles Gallant

This might be the most absurd touchdown price on the Week 1 board.

Justin Jefferson has drawn at least a 30% target share in each of the last three seasons — it doesn't really matter who his quarterback is. Now, obviously, he only scored twice last year but I don't know how much that can really be pinned on him given he was working with the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer.

Kyler Murray is a substantial improvement over what Jefferson was working with last season.

This should be priced closer to +135 given his talent and the positive matchup against the Packers.

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About the Author

Sean Koerner leads predictive analytics at Action Network, specializing in sports projections and fantasy rankings. With over 20 years of experience, he's a top expert in the field, consistently ranking first in the FantasyPros Accuracy standings multiple times. Known for his in-depth content on NFL betting and fantasy football, Sean also co-hosts popular podcasts and can do projections for all sports, making him a go-to source for accurate sports predictions.

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About the Author

Gilles Gallant is a sports betting expert at the Action Network, specializing in NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. A regular contributor to The Action Network Podcast and YouTube shows like Action Island and Bet What Happens Live, Gilles has been betting on the NFL since 2012 and honed his profitable strategy in 2018. With a background at Odds Shark and FTN Network, he’s known for his expertise in NFL and other sports markets like NBA and MLB. Gilles holds a degree in broadcast journalism from Nova Scotia Community College and is a Certified Sales Professional.​

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Grant NeifferVerified Action Expert

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