NFL Draft Odds: Zach Wilson Heavily Favored To Be Second Overall Pick, Ahead of Justin Fields
Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson
NFL Draft Odds: No. 2 Pick
We pretty much know that Trevor Lawrence will be the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. But what happens after that?
According to betting odds released at DraftKings, that might not be much of a secret either.
BYU quarterback Zach Wilson is a sizable -305 favorite to be the second player selected, well ahead of Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields at +500.
That’s not Lawrence’s level of “sizable” — the Clemson QB is -5000 to go No. 1, with Wilson the second-best option at +1100. Still, it seems Wilson has the early steam to go right after Lawrence.
The 2021 NFL Draft isn’t until April 29, so plenty can change between now and then. The interesting part about the second pick is it belongs to the New York Jets. Are they QB-needy? Do they even know? Sam Darnold sputtered during the Adam Gase-era, but there’s some belief his untapped potential can be reached with a competent coaching staff. Will that happen with New York?
The Jets can trade Darnold before the draft and take Wilson. They could keep Darnold and still take Wilson. They could decide to stick with Wilson and trade the No. 2 pick to a desperate team looking to move up for Wilson.
Our latest mock draft by Scott Smith has Wilson going second, as did the latest edition of Mel Kiper’s mock at ESPN, though there’s no industry consensus — Pro Football Focus released a mock draft on March 8 with Fields going No. 2.
Our in-house draft analyst Matthew Freedman locked in Wilson as the No. 2 pick weeks ago, as he mentioned here.
“At +120, Wilson had 45.5% implied odds to be the No. 2 pick, and that felt too low,” Freedman said. “While I rely on my own research, I also take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying an index of mock drafts. I find that these drafts, created by experts with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick. And when I bet on Wilson at +120, he was going No. 2 in 66.7% of indexed mocks. Right now, that has bumped up to 72.2%.”
If it’s not a quarterback at No. 2, Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell is +1000 with LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase listed at +1600.