The Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders meet in NFL Week 1 today. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Raiders are 3.5-point favorites over the Dolphins on the spread (Raiders -3.5), with the over/under set at 40.5 total points. Las Vegas is a -176 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +148 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs Raiders predictions and Week 1 NFL picks for Sunday, September 13.
My Dolphins vs Raiders Prediction
- Dolphins vs Raiders pick: Over 39.5; bet to 40.5 (-105)
My Dolphins vs Raiders best bet is the total to go over 40.5 points, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs Raiders Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -102 | 39.5 -115o / -105u | +148 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 39.5 -115o / -105u | -176 |
Dolphins vs Raiders NFL Week 1 Preview
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview: Worst Defense in League
This is my grossest bet of the week, but there is a very specific angle to attack here.
The Dolphins are rolling out Malik Willis at quarterback. While they don't have a game-breaking wide receiver room now without Jaylen Waddle, Willis being utilized heavily in the run game automatically raises the floor of this offense.
The real story with the Dolphins is just how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. The unit is essentially void of talent, especially on the back end where they are extremely raw. They ranked 32nd in our NFL Defense Rankings.
The Dolphins are going to struggle to get stops against anybody this season, let alone an offense that has made some significant upgrades in the trenches and at the skill positions.
Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview: Only Way is Up
The Raiders are a fascinating team this year.
They made a huge offensive staff upgrade in the offseason headlined with Klint Kubiak at head coach, and Kirk Cousins is going to look a whole lot better than he did last year simply because it would be impossible to look any worse.
More importantly, Las Vegas finally invested in protecting the quarterback. The Raiders brought in Tyler Linderbaum to anchor the center spot, Colton Miller is healthy at left tackle, and the unit as a whole is vastly improved. That should help RB Ashton Jeanty in his second year, plus the intriguing Mike Washington Jr. behind him.
When Cousins has a clean pocket, he can still put the ball where it needs to go. Unfortunately, he won't have Brock Bowers in the season opener following a surprise meniscus trim surgery. Bowers was hurt all of last year, but when he's right, he is completely unguardable.
On defense, however, the Raiders are going to deeply miss Patrick Graham, who departed for the Steelers. He elevated the Raiders' unit beyond its talent level last year, and without him, the major secondary questions are going to be exposed.
The defense looked horrific in the preseason, and they don't have the personnel in the defensive backfield to consistently hold up in coverage.
Dolphins vs Raiders Prediction, Betting Analysis
I know the receiver talent across the board isn't turning any heads, but neither are these secondaries. Both defenses are bottom-tier units with major schematic and personnel flaws.
We are getting a fast track indoors with a total sitting at 41 (and a widely available 40.5).
With Cousins operating behind an upgraded offensive line, and Willis raising the rushing floor for Miami against a Patrick Graham-less Raiders defense, both of these teams should easily be able to get into the low 20s.
Pick: Over 39.5; bet to 40.5 (-105)
